As of the close of Friday, A shares have a total of 33 trading days, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has a maximum decline of 12.57%.However, since February 6, the eight yang lines have risen 11.20%, and all declines during the year.
In history, since 2000, there have been two 8 consecutive yangs in history, which were on November 14, 2006 and 2013.On January 28, two rounds of bull markets of 6124 and 5178 were opened.
8-linked Yang, what can it be explained?
A shares are in the historical bottom area. The current market is in the bottom area in terms of valuation, time or space.No matter how the market goes after the 8 Lianyang, it has to be acknowledged that the market has improved significantly.
In less than 2 months, there are too many things in A shares.Real estate policies are constantly adjusted to release positive signals.Among them, more than 50 cities nationwide issued policies in more than 50 cities in January. For example, Shanghai announced on January 13 that Qingpu and Fengxian districts have canceled single purchase restrictions and social security can be purchased for 3 years.Buying a building area of more than 120 square meters is not included in the scope of purchase restrictions.The Peoples Bank of China and the State Administration of Finance and Administration issued opinions on the development of financial support for the housing rental market, and various regions vigorously promote the implementation of affordable housing.Although it is difficult for real estate to become a new growth point for future development, it is a top priority to stabilize real estate in an environment where the overall situation is relatively low.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the Securities Regulatory Commission ushered in the tenth chairman. As Wu Qing arrived, the Securities Regulatory Commission began some types of actions.These include investigating and punishing IPO financial fraud, ten years of financial data for listed companies, and illegal stocks of employees.After the holiday, the work continued to work. Within the 18th to 19th, the CSRC held a total of more than ten seminars.On the 19th, he went to the Securities Sales Department to conduct discussions and exchanges with representatives of more than ten investors.
In many good environments, continue to rise next, will it still generate a callback?let us wait and see!
In 2024, Longteng was prosperous, and the stock market wind rose, seizing opportunities, to be able to harvest.
First set a small goal, return to 3731.69 in 2021.
Summary of the Management Perspective
Rui County Views:
The market has recently entered a stage of panic, and investors may leave the market due to stop loss or because of despair.Although the end of the bear market is completely different from the end of the bull market, the essence is still the same: the bull market will lose a lot in one day at the end of the bull market, so it makes it difficult for everyone to give up.step.Later, the essence was emotional.
It is also difficult for us to predict where the bottom is, and there is no ability to predict.As long as we do not put leverage, maintain a moderate degree of participation, and after the difficulty period, we still maintain a certain expectation in the future.
Renqiao Views:
For Renqiao, this stage is indeed suffering from painWhat can we do at the risk of the tail? We will be more prudent to evaluate the company we invested in. There is no problem with the performance, only the valuation is compressed by the limit.What we are experiencing is the remodeling of an unprecedented large valuation system. The past experience is no longer applicable, but we believe that in view of the long -term strict standards of Renqiao, we believe in the combination of the combinationMost companies should have the test of the valuation limit to test this level: As for those who do not meet the expectations, after strict selection, we will make adjustments, although I know that any adjustment at this time will be essentially difficult to be difficult.Choose.The dark moment has arrived, and the turning point will not be far away.
Renbu View:
In February, our judgment on fundamentals still maintains the monthly report in JanuaryDetermine, wont go into details.The bottom of the economic expectations will still be on the economic data window of May. The probability of market rising market -driven market -driven market should not be high, but there may be a short -term rebound after the market negative feedback over decline.
Specific until February, under the market negative feedback, the combination configuration continues to defensive, and the combination configuration is on the one hand with low valuation and high -scalp features.The selected stocks in TMT, new materials, and pharmaceutical sections that are optimistic in the medium term will continue to hold, and the combination configuration adds a certain set of insurance hedging.
Construction viewpoint:
The policy continues, and the policy effect still needs to be observed.Since the beginning of this year, the policy has remained relatively loose tone.At the beginning of the month, with the re -distribution of PSL, a new round of urban village reconstruction project officially launched.On January 24, the central bank announced that "the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points from February 5th", release of about trillion long -term liquidity.On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development held a deployment meeting of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms to support reasonable financing of real estate projects in various places.Subsequently, multiple core cities announced the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy.However, although the policy is frequently introduced, the effect is not obvious in the short term.In January, real estate sales in the first and second -tier cities continued to decline significantly year -on -year, with a decline of nearly 30%, and the severe real estate situation exceeded expectations.We believe that the real estate of real estate requires stronger policy implementation, otherwise the negative impact on the economy will continue for a long time, which is also the core factor in the overall performance of A shares.
亘 曦:
For the 2024 equity market, maintain the previous annual strategy viewpoint, "2024 in 2024Entering a new cycle, the beginning of the new cycle is not a new bull market, but a year of consolidating the bottom. "Compared with 2023, the starting point is lower and emotional is more pessimistic, and the policy has been adjusted. In the context of the continuous downlink of risk -free interest rates, the logic has further fell sharply in the market.Adjustment, the main decline in the market index has been completed. In 2024, it has entered a new cycle. The beginning stage of the new cycle is not a new bull market, but a year of consolidating the bottom.
"Private Equity" was jointly launched by NetEase Finance and Zezhi.
Reminder: The content of the article is for reference communication only, and does not constitute investment suggestions.
