This week, the market continues to fluctuate.Throughout the week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.84%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 1.55%, and the GEM index fell 5.14%.The focus of the market this week is roughly three: Monster stocks are crazy, high -benchmarking shares on Friday, and the outbreak of rare earth permanent magnet sectors.
So, will the market be adjusted?Is the quotation of the non -colored sector continuity?Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed on the issues that everyone cared about.
Dr. Niu: Da Ge, hello.On the weekend, we talk about the market.On Thursday, you reminded the risks of small and medium -sized stocks and high -bid stocks in the article, and received market verification on Friday.I want to ask, how do you think of their follow -up market?Will the market continue to adjust?
Daoda: On Friday, there were several phenomena in the market, which made me worry about the short -term market trend.
First of all, in the article "" on Thursday, I mentioned that the current core stocks are at a high level.The risk of stocks and speculative stocks will not be too far away from the "eating big noodles".
On Friday, 165 stocks fell, and nearly 300 stocks with daily limit or more than 10%, nearly 400 stocks with a decline of over 9%, and the speculative emotional ebb is very obvious.The recent speculation direction of the wind direction marked Hai Nengda, and the "floor of the world" appeared.
From the perspective of A shares, the emotional ebb of the sector means that the short -term probability of the sector will turn off.However, the main direction of this round of demon stocks and high -bid stocks is the concept of mergers and acquisitions. After the emotional ebb, the low -level reorganization concept is worth starting.
Second, I mentioned in the article on Thursday that the two indexes of the CSI 1000 index and the National Stock Exchange 2000 Index have supplemented the gap in the hollowing up on October 9th on October 9th., Completed the basic task of rebound.
From the performance of Friday, it confirms Dagos judgment. Both of these two indexes have fallen by more than 3%.The main force of the decline.
Finally, on Friday, the weight blue chip represented by the above certificate 50, the second -tier blue chip represented by securities and colors, in my opinion, there is a cover of the withdrawal of the speculative direction of funds withdrawalsmell.
Based on the above phenomena, I think that the market has the motivation to continue to adjust.
In terms of index, the Shanghai Exchange 50 Index and the GEM Index fell below the consolidation range on Wednesday.The GEM is dominated by small and medium -cap stocks. Among them, small -cap stocks have recently increased, so its trend has not positively impact on the market.
The Shanghai Stock 50 Indexs rebound on Friday is temporarily viewed with anti -pumping.If you have a market in the short term, you must thoroughly stand up to the lower edge of the shock range from October 21st to October 29th.
Conversely, if the Shanghai Stock 50 Index goes down again and even falls below the low on October 18, the entire market will follow up.
In the recent article, Dago repeatedly mentioned the resistance range of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 3330 point-3350 points.At present, the resistance range has been tested twice.
From the perspective of the main line or mainstream hotspot experience at the stage, the ebb of the monster stocks and the linked stock stocks will generally be again on the second or third day of the daily limit tide.After falling, we ushered in anti -pumping.But after the anti -pump is completed, I think I will continue to adjust.
In terms of message, the Shanghai Stock Exchange released the "Typical Case Compilation of M & A and Reorganization".The compilation of the merger and acquisition reorganization case also specially selected four cases corresponding to 4 cases corresponding to 4 negative types of negative types of negative types such as "inward inside transaction prevention and control", "financial fraud", "hot -spicked reorganization hype", "blind cross -border subjects out of control".
These cases can be seen that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has always paid great attention to and strictly supervised the improper mergers and acquisitions transactions of various types of "reorganization, the facts of the favors".This will affect the hype of high -standard stocks with the recent concept of mergers and acquisitions as the core.
In this process, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the Shanghai Stock Index may take on the role of maintaining the stable market.
From the 5-minute K-line diagram of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, 3340 points-3152 points 61.8%divide, at 3224 points;The low point is 3206 points.Therefore, you need to focus on the gains and losses of these two points.In particular, it cannot fall below 3206 points, otherwise the adjustment will continue.
In general, the short-term market has the motivation to adjust.But even if there are adjustments, dont worry too much.Because at the beginning of the bull market, Dago also mentioned that the shock market would last for 1-3 months.As long as you do n’t pursue a stock of stocks that have risen, you can avoid the potential risks of short -term losses.
The short -term emotions of the market must improve, and important events may be reversed.And next week, three major events will be ushered in.Domestic aspects, from November 4th to 8th, the twelfth meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress was held; overseas, the US presidential election on November 5 and the Federal Reserves interest conference on November 6th-7th.
In the Federal Reserve, the current market expects to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
After all or one of these three incidents, after the occurrence of the incident, the market trend will be clear or the opportunity to usher in the trend.
Dr. Niu: Thank you Dogo for your sharing.On Friday, the non -colored sector suddenly protruded, will this sector continue to work?What are the opportunities for sections next week?
Daoda: Friends who often read my article in the past month should know that my point of view is clear: During the 1-3 months of shocks, the second lineBlue chips are the direction of low suction. The second -tier blue chips include securities, insurance, non -ferrous, electric power, coal, steel, construction, construction machinery and other sectors.
The future index must be attacked.During the shock, the subject matter was the protagonist.
Therefore, the strategy mentioned by Dago in the last month is the direction of low -suction second -line blue chips and hype new productivity.
The color sector rose sharply on Friday, mainly driven by the rare earth permanent magnet sector.The rare earth permanent magnetic sector has risen, and there are two logic: one is that the US presidential election has increased market expectations of the rare earth sector; the other is that according to the research report of Huatai Securities, the mining of local rare earth mines in Myanmar has stalled, the border is closed, and the import of rare earth raw materials in China is blocked by the import of rare earth materials in my country. Essence
The color sector, especially the rare earth permanent magnet sector, needs to observe sustainability.The continuous observation time window is generally three days or a week.If it can be continuously strong for three days, it means that the continuity is better; if it can reach a week, then there will generally be a phased market.Therefore, we first observe whether there will be three days of sustainability.
From the perspective of the driving force, in the non -colored sector, the driving force of rare earth permanent magnet is stronger.Not only has the above two logic, but also the news that the northern rare earth has been raised for three consecutive months at the corporate level.
During the market shock, the lithium cobalt and rare metals of energy metal and rare metal permanent magnet have been performed.Woolen cloth?I think this is possible.
The elasticity and logic of the coal plate will be more backward than the colors.During the turmoil of the market in the past month, the coal sector did not perform much, which is also a low suction direction.
The steel sector rose sharply on Monday, and then fell and repaired.This section that comes out of the Dayang line during the shock is worth observing.
At the current point, Dago mentioned the second -tier blue chip, the main reason is that the market will be adjusted in the short term, and the direction of the demon stocks and the high standard stocks will make the funds turn in the direction of the blue chip direction.The motivation.
Finally Da Ge made a summary: Monster stocks and speculative stock ebb, plus the two sedents to attack 3330 points to 3350 points, the market has the motivation to adjust in the short term.Next week, focus on the support of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index near 3224 points and near 3206 points. It is best not to fall below 3206 points. If the market is attacked upwards, you need to pay attention to whether 3350 points can break and break through.
In terms of sectors, during the speculative emotional tide, the second -tier blue chips and weight stocks will have an advantage over small and medium -cap stocks.In the direction of speculation, next Monday or Tuesday, after a short -term concerns of emotional release, there will be a driving force for anti -pumping, but anti -pumping is the opportunity to evacuate this direction in the short term.
PS: If you want to know more about Da Ges point of view, or if you want to communicate with Dago, please pay attention to the WeChat public account "Daoda".
(Zhang Daoda)
According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.