"Rui Xing of 9.9 yuan is gone" and rushed to the hot search recently. The violent coffee price "price war" made users happy, but coffee companies have been carrying weight.
Ruixing Coffee, which had soared all the way, also felt the pressure.In the past Q4, although the revenue still maintained a good growth (91.2%year -on -year), on multiple indicators such as sales growth, operating profit margins, and net profit in self -operated stores, Ruixing Coffee appeared to a large extent.Flow.
Throwing factors such as the off -season and poor performance of new products. The competitive pressure brought by opponents such as Kudy Coffee is the main cause, which forced Ruixing to increase investment in Q4.The decline in the superimposed subsidies to franchisees has diluted the profit performance of Ruixing Coffee this quarter.
Todays Ruixing Coffee is encountered as almost the same situation-macroeconomic, seasonal factors, and competition exacerbate entanglement entanglement entanglement entanglementOverlap.In order to shake off the opponent and started a price war, Q4 Ruixing opened the crazy store opening mode. In a single quarter, 2,975 net stores were net -increasing stores, an increase of 22.4%month -on -month. As of the end of 2023, the total number of stores had exceeded 16,000.
In addition to snatching users in the sinking market, Ruixing also encrypted in first -tier and second -tier cities in the quarter.Q4s sales growth rate of self -operated stores fell to 13.5%, setting the lowest time in the past two years.
After reaching a high of 38 US dollars in October last year, 4 months, Ruixings stock price fell 40%. At that time, the market was worried.What is even more worried about investors is that the collapse of Kudy Coffee is delayed, which means that in the next few quarters, Ruixings pressure is still not small.
Rui Xings stock price trend in the past year
Crazy subsidy
If two words are used to summarize the theme of Ruixing Coffee Q4, neither" opening "and" subsidies "cannot be bypassed, and both can be described by crazy.
Last year, Q4, Ruixing Coffees net increase in a single quarter of a single quarter, setting a record of new stores in a single quarter, which made the total number of stores exceed 16,000 in 2023.It has doubled a year.
Behind the crazy opening is Kudys step -by -step comparison. Last year Q2 and Q3, Kudy opened 5,500 stores in one breath, and the number of stores in the single quarter exceeded RuixingThis makes the latter feel stressful.
Kudy and Ruixing Coffee 2023 Data Data Source: Narrow Gate Meal Eye, Ruixing Finance Report
You know, as a new army of coffee, except for a slight difference in the operating mode (Kudy mainly relies on franchise, Ruixing is self -employed and joined merger), Kudys growth path continues almost the Ruixing once.The old road is just more aggressive.It reached 4,000 stores, and Ruixing took 2 years, and it took 6 years to break the 10,000 stores, but Kudys expansion speed was three times that of Ruixing.
After the new round of "Joining Stores Join" policy at the end of the third quarter, Ruixing lowered some of the opening thresholds, which brought the number of new stores in Q4 to usher in an outbreak.This speed has also continued at Q1 this year.
In addition to the fierce sinking market, in the fourth quarter store opening plan, Ruixing intends to encrypt the number of stores in first -tier and second -tier cities.Waiting places, began to expand to street stores.In addition to the consideration of brand effects, the potential benefits brought by this action are to maximize the proportion of self -lifting, thereby optimizing distribution costs.
Under the circumstances of the taste and price, the distance (store density) is the primary factors that users consider.Who can snatch users from competition.
But the negative impact of high -density store opening is also obvious. The most direct performance is the decline in sales growth in the same store. This data from Q4 Ruixing has fallen to 2022 Q4 2022 Q4The lowest level in the past few years is only 13.5%.
The sales growth of the Ruixing self-operated store.It is not enough to fully explain the severe decline of the growth rate of the same store. The high -intensity subsidies and seasonal factors brought by the "coffee price war" are especially the former.
In the fourth quarter, Ruixings single cup price dropped from 15 yuan Q2 to 13 yuan. Any stores adjacent to Kudadi issued 9.9 vouchers every day, and the coverage was also ranging from a few.The product covers most products, and some areas have expanded to the whole country.
At the telephone meeting in the second quarter, Ruixing CEO Guo Jinyi also said that "the subsidy of 9.9 will last for 2 years" because the ammunition of competitors is sufficient.Today, you can buy 20.9 yuan a cup of Starbucks oat milk coffee and 31.9 yuan two cups of matcha latte. This price is even comparable to Ruixing last year.
Because entering the coffee off-season, the average daily cup of Ruixing Q4 single store has also fallen to 400-450 cups, and it gradually declined from 10-10th to December.In the third quarter, the flavor of sauce latte was partially covered with the harm of "low -cost subsidies" to Ruixing, but when the industry entered the off -season, many problems began to be amplified infinitely.
Before the price war, the general return of Ruixing franchisees ranging from 6-15 months, but low-cost competition will be long in one cycle.In order to ensure the interests of partners, Ruixing also increased subsidies to suppliers in Q4.
A franchisee revealed that before Q4 last year, Ruixing, a 9.9 yuan voucher, subsidized 1 yuan per cup, but changed to Q4 to ensure that the franchisee was guaranteedThe single-cup sales gross profit (unit price-raw material cost) 4 yuan is the benchmark, and 4 yuan will be added at less than 4 yuan. Kudy did not choose to follow up similar subsidies.
This more long -term consideration has sacrificed Ruixings short -term profits. Q4 Ruixings net profit is only 290 million, although there are still good growth year -on -year (cause of the epidemic), But also the third difference in the past two years.
When the net profit changes of Ruixing Coffee each quarter (unit: 100 million)
When will the turning point come?
In the eyes of most investors and franchisees, Kudy is the party that is not optimistic in this competition.
A franchisee who has joined Ruixing and now transferred to Kudy once told 36 氪 that if such low -cost subsidies have been maintained, Kudy may be as early as the National DayIt ushered in the tide of closing shops.
The basis of this inference is that Kudys real large -scale expansion has begun from April and May last year.Inside, Kudys stores continue to lose money, and franchisees are likely to choose to transfer shops and no longer continue to pay rent. "Compared with Ruixing more stable cash flow generated by self -operated stores, Kudys subsidy funds often rely on franchisees to carry themselves.
But Kudys situation is more optimistic than reality.
Although the number of store opening in the fourth quarter was declining, before November, Kudy had not closed on a large -scale store.The above -mentioned franchisees revealed that in the past six months, they have not made money, but they have not lost a lot. Most shop owners are looking forward to the coming season.
In order to allow the supplier to support it as much as possible, Kudy also added subsidies from Q3, such as adding subsidies for new takeaway platforms.Can be used for use.
Kudys subsidy policy is more complicated. In addition to the basic single cup subsidy, it is also divided into multiple store subsidies, competition subsidies and rent subsidies.Early in the fourth quarter."By November and December, Kudys subsidy was significantly reduced." A franchisee revealed that "the subsidy of a single cup at the peak can reach 4-5 yuan, but now it is only 1-2 yuan."This led to a decrease of 25-30%of the Q4 cup of Kudy Coffee, only around 200 cups.
Kudy Coffee subsidy policy
This may be related to the tight cash flow of Kudy HeadquartersEssenceAfter experiencing the crazy shop in the second and third quarters, Kudys newly added stores in the fourth quarter fell, and it was only half of Ruixing.Since November, the number of closing shops in Kudy has also increased significantly. The monitoring of Geo Sea Big Data shows that the number of closing stores in Kudy has reached 854 in the past three months, but only 470 stores opened, and the number of stores has increased negatively.
Rui Xing and Kudy have opened the newly opened and closed number of stores in the past 3 months: Jihai Big Data
But now it is concluded that the collapse of Kudy is too early. A consumer investor admits that under the off -season effect, the number of closing stores increases reasonable, but if it will be in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of this year,The number of closures of Kudy is still increasing, and the "coffee war" is likely to end with Ruixings victory.
Ruixing actually gives enough respect for Kudys opponent. This is not only a vigilance of Lu Zhengyao, and to a greater extent because Ruixing has come all the way. An unconfirmed statement is that, in response to the performance expectations of 2023, Ruixing Management once had a fierce game with major shareholders.Ugly, but the shareholders did not agree, "a person familiar with the matter told 36 氪.
Enter 2024. With the decrease in the pressure of Kodys competitiveness, Ruixing began to reduce the scope of the 9.9 yuan voucher, but its crazy store plan is still continuing.In the first quarter, this number will approach 20,000, which is getting closer to the 25,000 ceiling predicted by the outside world.
However, what is worrying is that the decline in Q4 Ruixings cup actually exceeds the seasonal impact of previous years (only -10%in previous years, this year is around -20%),The main reason is encryption.22%of the stores increased from the previous quarter, and only 7%of the quarterly transaction user growth made a lot of doubt whether Ruixings store ceiling will come early.
