Since last year, due to macro factors, the price of photovoltaic components is upside down, the industrys production is low, and single -tile profit has continued to explore.After the Spring Festival, this situation has not changed significantly.
Infolink announced on February 21 that the photovoltaic supply chain price shows that the average price of Chinese project components is 0.9 yuan/watt, whichEssence
Infolink statistics show that the overall operating rate of Chinese photovoltaic component manufacturers in February 2024 was 23%, and the operating rate of the top nine component companies was 49%.Titanium Media APP learned from a photovoltaic enterprise that component prices have continued to be inverted, and the Spring Festival holidays that are superimposed."
The low price has brought more overseas orders. Many head photovoltaic component companies "pay the original guarantee market".It is estimated that the neutralization of the new global photovoltaic installation machine in 2024 is expected to be 474GW, a year -on -year increase of 16%, which is significantly slowed down from 2023.
The price is upside down after the section, and the operating rate is low.
Starting from June 2023, component companies have begun to set off a price war, and they have intensified.In October of that year, in a project bid, there was a price below 1 yuan/watt for the first time in the project bid.
Around the Spring Festival of the Dragon, the price of photovoltaic components was 0.8 yuan/watt to 0.9 yuan/watt, and even the quotation fell to 0.79 yuan/watt.
According to the latest data, the price of the price of photovoltaic components has not improved significantly after the festival.Infolink Consulting, on February 21, it announced a weeks photovoltaic supply chain price. The centralized average price of the domestic 182/210mm single crystal PECR component was 0.9 yuan/watt, and the distributed was 0.88 yuan/watt.Last year fell 48.57%and 50.56%.
It is reported that the head photovoltaic enterprise has begun to try the price, 5 cents is a gear, and the actual price must be based on the specific situation.Jingke Energy (688223.SH) pointed out in the investor relations activity record form that with the launch of the large -scale bidding bidding in the Chinese market, the quotation of front -line manufacturers is expected to stabilize.The prices of different manufacturers, technology and markets may differentiate."
The price of the price continues, superimposed this years long Spring Festival holiday, and the situation of photovoltaic component companies does not seem to recover after the festival.
An unnamed photovoltaic practitioner told the Titanium Media APP that because of the downward price, most photovoltaic component companies had reduced production production before the Spring Festival.At present, the overall operating rate of each component manufacturer is not high, and our operating rate is okay. "
This also confirms the public data. According to the statistics of the industry institution Infolink, 2024In February, the overall operating rate of Chinese photovoltaic component manufacturers was 23%, and the operating rate of the top nine component companies was 49%. Although the relevant person in charge of Jingke Energy said that the operating rate after the festival was not convenient to disclose, it was the same period last year.Compared to basically the same.
The output of photovoltaic components has also declined for two consecutive months. Shanghai Non -Color Network (SMM) believes that the output of domestic photovoltaic components in February 2024 may be lower than that30GW, a decrease of about 20%from January. In January 2024, the output of domestic photovoltaic components was about 35.5GW, and it had decreased by 21.6%in December 2023.
Talking about it.The reason for the decline in output, Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) believes that terminal demand continues to weaken, and the phenomenon of inverted production costs of photovoltaic components is generally affected.10%to 20%, more than 50%.
Tiantuang Energy (688599.SH) did not give the titanium media APP specific data, but they answered investment in JanuaryWhen the problem, it is said that the current photovoltaic industry is indeed facing the stage where the supply is greater than the demand. One of the main reasons for this situation is that the traditional P -type battery remains less room for improvement.The low -efficiency production capacity will face a large elimination pressure.
"Layoning the Subject Subsidies", the heating up in March
At present, the price of domestic photovoltaic components has fallen below 1 yuan/watt, which has caused export volume to the non -European and American markets. Among them, the export volume of the Indian market has increased by nearly 70 % month -on -month. CITIC Securities is expected to have the demand for photovoltaic components in non -European and American overseas markets this year.The growth is over 30 %. It can be seen that the rebound of the photovoltaic sector has shifted from the early valuation repair to the substantial fundamental fundamental improvement logic drive.
The above -mentioned photovoltaic companies also said to the Titanium Media APP, 2The fundamental reason for the decline of moonlight -virgin components is that the price of the price is expected to decrease sharply. At present, many head companies are selling at a loss, and overseas has brought a lot of orders while taking low prices.
The Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association said that the component end production in the photovoltaic industry chain rebound is particularly significant.EssenceIt is expected that the module production in March will increase to more than 50GW, which will usher in a major turnaround.
Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) recently stated that the first quarter of 2024 was the off -season in market demand.Support the price of the industrial chain to promote the amendment of the price of the industrial chain.
But overall, in 2024, the photovoltaic industry will continue to grow but the growth rate will decline.Industry institution TrendForce Ji State Consultation believes that the neutralization of the global photovoltaic new installation machine in 2024 is expected to be 474GW, a year -on -year increase of 16%, which is significantly slowed down from 2023.
Soochow Securities Research reports that it is expectedIt has gradually exited, the faucet is strong and the concentration has been improved.
"According to the construction of N -type production capacity, it is estimated that the N -type production capacity of the photovoltaic industry in 2024 will also enter the surplus stage." Longji Green Energy also said that the pressure on the overpopulation of the market in 2024 is comparedLarge, if the price of the industrial chain continues to operate at a low level, then companies with fragile financial conditions and unsecured technology may be forced to stop production or withdrawn. At that time, the actual supply and demand of the industry will continue to balance, and the price of the industrial chain may return to rationality.
(This article was first published in the Titanium Media APP, Author | Guo Mengyi)
