1. Currently need some basic consensus
Three consensus needs to be reached:
1. Development is the foundation of solving all problems, and strive for the economy.China is still a developing country, and development is the primary task.If economic growth slows down, the risks of employment, debt, finance, real estate, and stock markets will be revealed.The potential of Chinas economy has maintained a long period of medium -speed growth, and all problems will be solved.
2. Returns the spirit of entrepreneurs.Only entrepreneurs are active, can entrepreneurship, create employment, and drive residents income is the source of the vitality of the market economy.Activating entrepreneurship and boosting confidence in private economy, no special measures are required. The key is to provide stable expectations and the spirit of the rule of law.The reason why the modern industrial revolution broke out in the UK is largely related to protecting intellectual property and property rights.
3. Introduce a package of economic booster plans to expand domestic demand.One of the major results and common sense of modern macroeconomics is that when demand is insufficient, it can make up for the demand gap through the method of currency interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion expenditures, and adjust the cycle.If you can make new infrastructure, new energy, artificial intelligence, digital economy, high -end manufacturing, etc., you can take into account short -term steady growth and long -term promotion of innovation.
launched the expansion of domestic demand plans led by new infrastructure, activating the spirit of entrepreneurs, and promoting sustainable economic prosperity.
2. Is the monetary policy need to cut interest rates?
Now the price of prices has grown negatively for three consecutive months. The actual financing cost of the enterprise has increased. What should I do?Interest rate cuts.A very important role in cutting interest rates is to reduce the burden on our residents, enterprises and local debt.Not only do you reduce the interest rate of new loans, but also the interest rate of inventory of inventory. Everyone is gone to the battlefield. If the debt burden declines, it will be able to consume, and companies are willing to invest.
There is also a reduction in the interest rate of the stock loan. In the past, the interest rate of the mortgage mortgage of the first house was good for government.Restable and reduce the debt cost of banks.In this way, consumption and investment vitality is expected to be released.
Dont worry about the spread of China and the United States. The monetary policy of large powers is mainly me. The primary goal is domestic economic growth and employment. This is the basic market.The exchange rate is affected by the spread in the short term, but it depends on economic growth for a long time.
Three, Looking forward to the macroeconomic in the macro economy
The macro policy will increase, and the economy is expected to be repaired gentle. There are four support:The first is the comprehensive turn of the policy and put steady growth in a more important position;
The second is the financial force, and infrastructure has become an important starting point for the economy;Prevent heat and turn to prevent cold, the construction of the "three major projects" construction, alleviate the weak situation of real estate investment;
Fourth is the new economy represented by artificial intelligence, new energy, and digital economyGive rapid growth and give strong support from the aspects of taxation and capital markets.
Fourth, formation of housing banks to break the current real estate
Fund acquired the land and commercial housing inventory of developers at the right price, which is used to rent housing security housing, improve peoples livelihood, rescue housing companies, and relieve fiscal pressure.
Since the second half of 2021, real estate companies are facing operating pressure and improvement of funding chain.At the same time, the insurance diploma is the top priority. For the establishment of a housing bank, the establishment of special funds is used to acquire developers land and commercial housing inventory. After the developer gets funds, it is limited to the insurance.Let buyers bear the risk of real estate adjustments. They are innocent and vulnerable groups, which will affect social stability.The current approach is to allow local governments to keep the building, but there is a certain financial pressure in the local area, and the ability may be relatively limited.
If there are excess funds for housing companies, it can be used for land acquisition, land finance will be restored, local debt pressure can be relieved, and infrastructure is expected to rise.
The inventory commercial housing and land acquired for leased housing security housing will help improve peoples livelihood. If additional land supply is added for leased housing, it will cause a certain degree of waste.Out of one fell swoop.
Top 10 real estate forecasts in 2024
1. The era of real estate development end, enter the stock housingDuring the leading era, the long-term inflection point of the population of the main buyers at the age of 20-50 appeared. The urbanization rate reached 66%, the household ratio exceeded 1.09, and the per capita housing area exceeded 34 square meters."Real estate has a long -term population, land in the medium term, and short -term finance."
2. Land finance is facing transformation, land finance occupies half of the local financial resources, local debt issues are prominent, and it needs to be resolved to promote the transformation of tax finance and equity finance.
3. The real estate market is facing adjustment and differentiation. The adjustment is to digest the previous high housing prices, high inventory, and high leverage. Differentiated is that the market where population flows out of cities will differentiate.
4. The population moves to the urban community in the urban circle.The phenomenon and laws of population agglomeration have appeared in half.
5. Whether the real estate market can soft landing can largely affect whether Chinas economic growth shifting can go smoothly, with tens of millions of people employment, dozens of upstream and downstream industriesThe chain, and the security of more than one-third of the financial credit, will be critical in the next 2-3 years.It is not a career. Global economic history shows that real estate is the mother of the cycle and nine real estate in ten times.
6. Restrictions such as relaxation restrictions, loans, and price limit are the general trend. These are tightening measures issued by the real estate market before.Preventing heat and turning to prevent cold, restricted measures should be accelerated to promote soft landing in the real estate market.
7. The real estate industrys shuffling is the general trend. Most real estate companies will disappear or be acquired and reorganize, and increase their efforts to support the reorganization of high -quality real estate companies and survive the fittest. This is the development of all industries to the development of all industries.The mature stage must be experienced.
8. Real estate sales and investment will gradually slow down. It is expected to bottom out in the next 2-3 years. The main support of the future housing market will come from urbanization, improved demand, urban renewal, and urban renewal, and urban renewalThe demand for security housing.
9. The three major projects are the main support of real estate investment in 2024. The funds are mainly from the central government. You can consider the establishment of a housing bank, the acquisition of the developers inventory for security housing.After funds, priority is used to preserve the diplomatic building, which helps to prevent rotten, land resources and resolve financial risks.
10. The urban agglomeration strategy, human -land hook, financial stability, and rent -and -purchase is a policy of governing the balanced and healthy development of the real estate market, changing cognition, and compliance with economic laws.
The current key: promotes market confidence recovery, supports high -quality housing companies, improves local land finances, and then drives upstream and downstream improvements. This is the key to the current problem
The current key is to fight the economy, and development is the foundation of solving all problems.As long as we put development in the primary tasks and the first priority, we will make full efforts to work hard, and we will introduce a large -scale economic recovery measures with enough efforts, boosting the confidence of private economy, active capital markets, promoting the soft landing of real estate, and unswerving economic constructionFor the center, the Chinese economy is expected to enter the recovery track.
