Hello everyone, I am old, an attitude of financial self -media.
Last Friday, the release of a group of thunder people overseas, which will affect the A -share market. If soI will take a look with you. There are four parts in this article. The last part of the prompt is important. Dont forget.
One, the data of the Thunder After the non -agricultural data of Lao Mei came out on Friday, it was surprising.According to the US Bureau of Statistics, the number of non -agricultural employment in October was only 12,000, which was far lower than the estimated value of 105,000, and the cliff -type decline.
Actually dont look at the data thunder. Actually, Lao Mei is very noisy recently, one is the hurricane of Florida, and the other is the portAfter the workers are in trouble, after the two factors are deducted, the real employment data is about 14-19 million.This month was 220,000, so the economy economy is indeed slowed down, but there is no "mines".
If you combine another thing, you will be clear about the reason.Not only did the data bleak in October, the US Statistics Agency also repaired the data of August and September.In fact, because the election is about to be hammered, the new leader is going to take office.
What does it affect the market?
and look at the market response, the US dollar, U.S. debt interest rates and US stocks are rising. Obviously, Lao Meis own understanding is still online, which also shows that the market is generally expected to be old and AmericanThe "soft landing" of the economy means that it is at least not bad for foreign demand exports, and the short -term US stocks will not have a risk of plummeting and will not be transmitted to us.Secondly, employment data softened and exceeded the influence of inflation data, and it also determined that the Fed continued to cut interest rates in November, which will leave our strategy.
So theoretically A shares should be better in theoretically?Of course not!Not only will it not be good, on the contrary, it may be worse. Perhaps everyone feels wondering. In fact, behind the operation of Lao Mei, it is probably a probability that the two parties of the donkey will be changed."Trades panic" created opportunities for yourself. After all, this round of institutions have been seriously empty, and with the approaching of the end of the year, the annual fund ranking war is about to begin!
So the shock cannot be escaped. Some people say that the shock is an opportunity for reversing and picking up people, but in fact the essence of the shock is the action of the institutions positioning.People, then they wont say a round of market, some make a lot of money, some make less!In the case of the 500 -point increase at the beginning of the year, although it is not comparable to the present, in fact, the beginning of the 8 -Lianyang at the beginning was also very surprising. As a result, after 8 Lianyang, some stocks began to leave.
How should ordinary people deal with?In fact, the key is to see if your stock has been abandoned by the institution.For example, the following stock:
This is the trend chart of "Zitian Technology".The stock also had a rapid rebound. The 8 trading days rose more than 20%. I thought it was another big cow. I did not expect that after February 23, the stock price fell all the way. At the beginning, due to the small decline, the stock price of the stock price, the stock priceSmall fluctuations, it is likely that everyone doesnt care much, especially if you buy it at the bottom, you wont care, you dont know that the bitter fruit is caused.
But if we know the behavior of institutional funds, there will be no such troubles. After all, the price of the stock price is in their hands. Some people will say that the institutional behavior can also be.Can you see it?Of course it is possible!In fact, there have been such big data statistics tools.To put it simply: first save all the "transaction behavior" data first, after a long -term accumulation, and then calculate through big data models, we can see different "transaction behaviors" features./>
This is the "transaction behavior data map" of "Zitian Technology" in the first half of the year.The "institutional inventory" data that reflects the activity of institutional funds in the years big data system. It reflects the willingness of institutional capital transactions. The more active the "institutional inventory", the more funds participating in the transaction and the longer the time.It can be seen from the figure that except at the beginning, there are some signs of active funds in institutions. After thatIt ’s just temporary. Sure enough, although the index has been rising to mid -to -late May, the stock has long been beyond recognition. This scene will appear this time. I do n’t know, but I ca n’t bet!
In turn, if the institutional funds are actively participating, what will happen?P> This is the "Transaction Behavior Data Map" of "Ruifeng Gao Material". It can be seen from the figure that the duration of "institutional inventory" data is almost consistent with this wave of market.It is also doubled, which is the result of institutional funds. Although the stock price will also fall, it is indeed relatively short.
So, the next thing we really want to be careful not to plummeted, but to beware of adjusting the stock, then really waste the market!
Four, important tips
You can see that this round of bull market and the past are the pastIt is completely different that the idea of the institution is more pragmatic than the past, and the result of this pragmatic is that funds are more concentrated. Therefore, it is important for the distribution observation of the entire market institution.The traditional capital flow observation cannot be observed globally, but the "institutional inventory" data mentioned earlier can be seen. See the figure below:
This is the "institutional inventory" data distribution map on November 1st. It is not difficult to see from the figure that the bipolar differentiation of the current institution is very obvious, although the number of stocks covered by "institutional inventory" data is not small.However, from the perspective of direction, one is to maintain for about 2 weeks, and the other is to maintain about one month, and then it is a rapid decline, which means that the time period for funds to participate in the transaction is mainly concentrated in these two areas.Holding, its not the ultimate answer!
This article is here, pay attention to the old, and bring you different perspectives anytime, anywhere.
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