The Fed announced that it would cut interest at 25 base points and "declared war" to Trump.
At the November interest interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced unsurprisingly on 25 basis points, and the benchmark interest rate was lowered to 4.50%-4.75%.
The most noticeable is the Fed Chairman at the subsequent press conference to "fire" directly to Trump, full of gunpowder.
The Trump effect appears, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate reduction prospects have changed?Why should the Fed "hard" Trump?
Today we will talk about these issues. Code words are not easy, welcome to like, forward, collect.
declare war to Trump!
On November 8, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was asked about two sharp issues at the press conference after the conference.
If Trump asked you to step down, would you do it?Does the president have the power to let you dismiss or reduce your job?
In this regard, Powells answer is particularly stiff. He only used the words "no" and "laws not allowed" to respond.
and when saying the phrase "not allowed the law", Powell is serious and stops, almost like "declared war" directly towards Trump.
This is not over yet. Compared to the toughness of words, the actual expression of the Federal Reserve is full of gunpowder.
In this policy statement, the Fed deleted a very critical sentence:
"Continue inflation to 2 to 2The confidence of %goal is enhanced.
This sentence is almost the soul of the Federal Reserves life after the end of the Federal Reserve, and abandoning this "Soul Word"The foreshadowing is an alternative eagle.
But what you need to know is that Trump has always hoped that the US dollar can reduce interest rates, and the Feds current performance is obviously with TrumpsRequest to be separated.
and this time at the press conference, Powell also bluntly said that "Trumps policy will not affect the Feds short -term policy decision" and use "no guessIt is not speculated that "does not assume" to respond to show that the Fed will not be directly affected by politics.
It is worth mentioning that although Powell became chairman of the Fed after being nominated by Trump, the two sides had suspicion because Powell did not reduce the interest rate of the US dollar.
Even as early as 2018, Trumps last term tried to relieve Powells chairman, but eventually failed to implement it successfully.
Now Trump has won the election again, Powell stated toughly, and the war seemed to be out of touch.
interest rate cuts?
Trump came to power, bringing a huge variable to the Feds interest rate cuts. The market now even begins to expect that the Fed may "suspend interest rate cuts" in December.
At present, Wall Street generally cuts the betting prospects of the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts. Nomuras economist is the most radical.Second-rate.
The logic here is very simple. Trumps macroeconomic economic policy is mainly divided into three major aspects: tariffs, immigration and fiscal.
Specifically, Trump not only has to impose 60%tariffs on Chinese goods, but also impose 10%tariffs on other countries around the world.
This will inevitably lead to the rise of domestic inflation in the United States. According to Damo forecast, the core inflation rate of the US economy may increase by 0.9%, and the growth rate of GDP will decrease by 1.5One percentage point.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for more than two years, and inflation has a signs of control.The possibility of inflation and interest rate cuts is naturally greatly reduced.
Followed by immigrants. Although everyones attention to immigrants is not high, restricting immigration will reduce US labor supply and may bring greater inflation pressure.
Finally, in terms of fiscal policy, Trumps claim isWhat good news.
Trumps friends before, US real estate tycoon Grant once said that the primary task after Trump came to power was to solve the housing crisis, and the only way to solve this problem wasApplying pressure on the Federal Reserve requires it to reduce interest rates. 7%of the mortgage interest rate must be reduced to 4%or even lower.
But at present, the Fed does not seem to have intended to make Trump as much as possible, and the prospects for cutting interest rates have changed.
New round of harvesting?
As the world currency, every move of the Fed will set off a financial tsunami worldwide.Make a US dollar tide to complete the harvesting of the world.
For example, the interest rate hikes that started in 2022, including Argentina, Egypt, Lebanon, etc., are all victims.
Now, on the surface, the Fed seems to have eaten a reassurance for the market through "confrontation" with Trump:
Even if it is the US President, it cannot affect the Feds decision -making. You can give the Fed 100%trust.
But from deeper consideration, is the Feds use of adjusting the rhythm of interest rate cuts and release different signals to affect the large fluctuations of the US dollar index and complete a new round of harvesting?
This is not impossible.
The last US dollar interest rate cut 50 basis points, the US financial market already had capital out of capital, and the Chinese capital market, which released many good economic policies, became the destination of some capital.
Now the Fed releases the eagle signal again.Back to 7.2, it has been adjusted by 3.2%compared to the 6.96 high on September 27.
Trump was elected as the President of the United States, and the impact on the US economic situation began to appear. In this context, the pace of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve becameThe confusing, we need to be vigilant.
Trump was elected again, but from the current Feds attitude, it seems to be going to continue to say to Trump "No ", it will not adjust the monetary policy due to external forces interference.
The Fed issued a signal of declaration war to Trump, which may suspend interest reduction and how will it affect the global economy?This is the focus we need to pay attention to in the future.
In -depth understanding of the facts behind the hot topic. If you like this content, please like it, leave a message to communicate, and give support.
