Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War in February 2022, this war has continued for two years.In the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia and Ukraine double exposed a lot of problems , and also brought a lot of new directions and problems to the world.
Many of them have taken the opportunity to think of the current status of Taiwan, and feel that the military operations that may occur in Taiwan in the future will beWorry and trouble.
The appearance and status quo during the Russian and Ukraine War
In this Russias military operations against Ukraine, there are quite a lot of problems.Planning, preparation for war, the number of soldiers, estimates of war intensity, estimation of Ukraines determination, estimation of the intensity of war ... all exposed serious lack.
At the beginning of the war, especially during the first three roads entering the army, due to the high propaganda place of propaganda during the start of the war, the strategic goals of Russia far exceeded their investmentThe troops.
At the same time, due to the lack of incoming and supporting infantry and repair power, a large number of valuable military equipment was abandoned by the roadside or easily fell into the enemy.
After several months of war, Russia, which is an attacker, is still hesitant to change the military service system and increase the issue of front lines for various reasons.
This so that the slow -moving Ukrainian side has the opportunity to reorganize defense and organizational counterattack, and once played the victory of the Bonali Mandarin counterattack, which caused the Russian army to lose a lot of military military again.equipment.
In the subsequent military operations, the Ukraine also made a large number of mistakes that similar to the early Russian army-disregarding military objective objectivesInsufficient strength and launching a counterattack of insufficient preparations have been launched, causing a heavy loss of troops under the condition of limited results, and also laid a foreshadowing for his military difficulties in 2023.
Under such mistakes of each other , the two parties will begin to fall into the endless stalemate war in 2023, waiting for the other party’s "blood flow dry dry"" ".
Logic below the appearance
In Russia and Ukraine, they have "Russias Emile" and "U -Russian Counterattack Russia" to "strategic stalemate consumption"On the surface, there are a series of errors in the strategic to tactical policy .
As Clausevitz expressed in his book "Theory of War", "All war is political act, war is not a short blow, war is not a short blow.Its not an isolated behavior ".
But in February 2022, Russias performance at the beginning of the war, from the Social Society of Russia at the end of February"The rear of the three major tactical groups will be" rear of the three major tactical groups, and the large -scale interspersed by the infantry will be removed (and is blocked by the refugee team).
Almost every one shows obvious, strong military adventureism, and it is very contradictory to the purpose -from the perspective of its views, itsThe purpose is to defeat Ukraines current pro -European government and force them to give up their political purposes.
But from the perspective of its military actions, it also obviously violates the foundation of the battle as campaign:
"We must decide how much power we should use according to the enemys resistance ... we will enhance our strength as much as possible, but the enemy will do this.A competition with each other. "
However, Ukraine, as a military force that is not too weak, Russia chose not to change it at all at all."Limited attacks" under unreasonable military law.
When it is known that a large number of military supplies from Western Europe have entered Ukraine, when the Ukrainian new troops began to armed Ukraine, evenIt has not taken any prevented actions -it is almost acquiescence and letting the source of these materials from entering Ukraine from Western Europe.
These "incredible" moves from the perspective of military and political perspectives have laid "unexpectedly" the results of a series of battles between Russia and Ukraine.The seeds of "reasonable".
The same problem is also applicable to the allies behind Ukraine -after October 2022, European countries still have to "support Ukraine against Russia, while on the other hand, you can follow from the side.The fantasy of Russias cheap energy " The first ends of the mouse.
At the same time, it is also due to insufficient awareness of its own strength or excessive confidence, from 2022 and 2023 twice timesIn large -scale counterattacks, all set up too unrealistic goals, so that the counterattack dragged water, and it is difficult to complete .
What are the warnings of our country?
There is no doubt that the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (whether the "Russia and Ukraine" or "special military operation")The "ultimate means" that occurred in has many reference value.
Just as the ancient Chinese words "soldiers and nobles" and the repeated "" ""Three of the four principles of the war, not waste of time " said, fast and accurate action (note that not the blind movement of Russia in military operations in 2022) can allow many measures to make the enemy in the preparation processLost effect .
In the early days of military operations, Russia did not conduct any military operations in Ukraine and Western Europe, nor did they try to cut off Western European assistance to enter Ukraine. This is relatively good for Taiwan, my country Do a lot.
Due to the terrain characteristics of the islands in Taiwan, its external resources entering need to be difficult to hide and relatively easy to cut off.The possibility of large -scale assistance in Ukraine.
At the same time, once the liberation of Taiwans Taiwan region enters the "final means", it means that politically and military, military and militaryThe purpose of the purpose is already completely unified, which is very beneficial to avoid the problems of "looking forward to the front and the back" and "the first mouse" in strategy and tactics , but it may not be completely avoided.
Summary:
Many of the "incredible" war status and experience and lessons in the Russian and Ukraine war really have considerable reference value for the PLA.But it is not a mechanical application and summary.
But the "War is still a violent duel based on comprehensive national strength " "" ""The essence is still unchanged. As for some so -called "military enthusiasts", they like to use "overall wars" as the experience of the old era and "窠 本".> "War and history are material and objective entities. It will not be controlled by subjective conjectures to follow the rules and history of the war." Reference Data:
[1] Xinhuanet "Essay:" Is it worthwhile to dance with beauty " -Europes reflection on the Ukrainian crisis"
[2] Xinhuanet "One Anniversary Back: How to Change the World in Ukrainian Crisis"
【3】 Rand Think Tanks "Ukrainian War in Russia: Opinions of Rand Company"[4] Carl von KykLaosvezs "War theory"
[5] China News Weekly "Big Game behind the Fire"
[6] Peninsula TV "Overview of the Russia and Ukraine War: 638 Days"
【【【7] Global Times "How much does the Russian counter -counter on Taiwan?Expert: Do not learn lessons, you will face huge risks "
[8] The National Taiwan Office" Russia and Ukraines conflict leads Taiwans worry "today in Ukraine, tomorrow in Taiwan, Taiwan", National Taiwan Affairs A response"
