Original Title: North Korea launched a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Intercontinental Bullets Missiles to the eastern part of South Korea
31st Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian hostedIn a regular press conference, a reporter asked that North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile to the eastern waters of South Korea today, which is the first time North Korea has launched intercontinental ballistic missiles this year.South Korea and the United States condemned the launch and said they would respond strongly.The Presidential Palace of South Korea stated that it would be discussed with Ukraine to send special envoys to deal with North Korea to send troops to Russia. How does China think of the current situation?Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Regarding reports, as a neighbor of the peninsula, China pays attention to the development trend of the situation in the peninsula.This effort .
Extending reading
Recently,Related news about North Koreas dispatch of troops in Russia has come, and the caliber is different.
On October 18, the South Korean National Institute said that "North Korea decided to send special forces such as special forces to assist Russia to fight, a total of about 12,000 people. Among them, the first batch of 1500People arrive in Russia. "As of the end of this article, in these ten days, the news has been spread and fermented in layers of fermentation.
Overall, the Western camp affirmed the intelligence of North Korea to send troops to Russia.The Shengli Army "Anti -Ufuid Russia", and if the war participated in the war, would the DPRK enter the Ukrainian territory.
The reaction of Russia and North Korea is more intriguing.North Korea was refuted at first, and then made a relatively vague statement; the Russian side emphasized that the current military cooperation between North and Russia is in line with international law. It is not harmful to third parties. South Korea does not need to worry about it.
Kim Jong Kui expressed a screenshot of foreign media reports to North Korea
Readers who often read international problems analyzing articles may have this experience: they are often attracted to the title, read the full text, the full text feels logical and solid, but if you think about it, you feel "Listening to the kings words, like listening to a word ", the question he cares about has not been answered.
In fact, it is not possible to blame international experts. Most experts are not intelligence staff. They also make their own judgment based on public information.Over the years of working in a certain field, long -term research and tracking of related issues can often only publish more confident views.However, it is difficult for the author to agree with another view that because there are too many international events variables, it is difficult to predict, so experts only analyze the gains and losses of the parties after the incident.
The author tries to break the order of the general text, and first concluded that even if the DPRK army directly participates in the Ukrainian war, it will probably make it independent, rather than the Russian army to participate in the war.The following will be based on the explanation of the judgment basis to analyze the impact of the Korean armys participation in Russia and Ukraine to the geopolitical politics of Northeast Asia.
The Treaty of the Russian and North Korea Alliance Treaty and North Koreas "Anti -Ufuid Russia"
Russia -DPRK relations have continued to deepen. Its iconic incident was President Putin visited North Korea on June 19 this year and signed a treaty with the nature of military alliances.The treaty stipulates that "one of them must provide military assistance when the other party is invaded."
After the signing of the treaty, the DPRK announced the content of the treaty as soon as possible. The Russian side has not completed the legal procedure of signing the contract, that is, whether to submit the national Duma vote for approval.Since then, rumors about North Koreas about to send troops to the Russian battlefield have continued to appear until the aforementioned news from South Korea on October 18.
During this time, the Russian treaty approval was pressed by the acceleration key.On October 14, President Putin assigned the deputy minister of Foreign Affairs to send the treaty to the National Duma for review and voted on the 24th.
Russia approves a partnership agreement with North Korea Russian media report screenshots
Before visiting North Korea to the news of North Korea, South Korea expressed concern to Russia through various channels, and claimed that as a response to Russias military cooperation, it would consider assisting killing weapons from Ukraine.But obviously, the Korean side failed to prevent the Russian DPRK from further deepening.
The author asked the deputy minister of Ludido, who was responsible for the relationship with North Korea at the July Valse forum, asked questions about whether North Korea would directly "anti -Ukraine and Russia".Essence
Deputy Minister Ludido was asked if North Korea would directly "anti-Ukraine Russia"Problem
Maybe for both Russia and the North Korea, sending troops into Russia is only a matter of time, but such an important and sensitive military political move can naturally only answer some diplomatic words.However, after the meeting, he became interested in which country I was.
The author believes that the formal approval of the Treaty of the Russian and North Korea Alliance has been confirmed by the DPRK army into Russia, and the overlap in time is by no chance.When the DPRK army of the institutional system is involved in the Russian and Ukraine conflict, it will inevitably be concealed. At that time, the two countries are expected to quote the content of "one party must provide military assistance when one party is invaded" as the political basis for sending troops.
Although the current Russian and Ukraine War is in line with the situation of "Russias aggression", it remains to be discussed, but according to the Russian standards, the Four Wudong prefectures that are righteous now have "publicly invested Russia in Russia."Become a Russian territory. At the same time, there are a small part of Kurusk, and a small part of the regions have been occupied by the Ukraine to meet the standards for launching the Alliance Treaty.
During the period from June to October this year, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un met with the deputy minister of the Russian Ministry of Defense in July, Clewarucho, who was in charge of military equipment.Former Russian Minister of Defense, Shiyu, can speculate on phased consultations on military cooperation between the two countries.This seems to be different from the high confidentiality of military cooperation in the general cognition of the public. From the beginning to the end, it did not try to hide this cooperation from beginning to end. Instead, it took the initiative to publish some information.
Russian -DPRK military cooperation, the principles of political economy of the DPRK
North Koreas economic situation and military backup level,Everyone has heard of it; is it necessary to invite such a foreign army to help out in the battlefield in the past six months?
The Russian and Ukraine War has been delayed. The war mode of the two sides has completely reduced to war. Although the Russian army has progressed, it has never achieved a decisive victory.At the same time, the problem of insufficient troops that plagued the Russian army did not solve. The salary of the Russian army recruited contract soldiers has reached 210,000 rubles (about 15,000 yuan) per month, but it does not seem to achieve the ideal effect;It is not cost -effective to pay the salary of North Korea.In addition, the Russian side chose to let the Korean army participate in the war. There is still a global strategy consideration, and the following will be a slight analysis.
One thing worth noting is that in the face of the new situation of military cooperation in Russia and the DPRK, the most intense response is not Ukraine and the United States, but South Korea on the other side of the earth.
If it is simply from the perspective of military power, the North Korean army is sent to Russia, even Ukraine, which means that the military power confrontation with South Korea has decreased accordingly.Isnt it more alleviated with military pressure? Why should we make great momentum?
The author believes that the reason is that the sending troops in North Korea must be rewarded. This return may not even need to pay any money in Russia.It is Russias relatively advanced military technology, which is extremely important for North Korea, which is huge but backward.
North Korea is difficult to update conventional armed forces under the severe economic situation, so it focuses on resource development nuclear guidance technology.Given that the United States density system in Asia -Pacific, North Korea does not have any sea -based nuclear forces, which can be said to be very small.And if the Russian side can share some military technologies that are not too advanced, it can be described as a technological innovation for North Korea.
In September 2023, the Russian and North Korean leaders met in the East Space Launch Field in the Russian Far East
Before the Russian and Ukraine War, the Northeast Asian policy of Russia was basically maintaining its fighting without breaking. The Security Councils sanctions on the North Korea were only passed without opposition from Russia.Facing the comprehensive plugging of Western countries today, Russia has to adjust foreign policies. Such changes involve many regions including Palestine, Iran, and Northeast Asia.Although Western countries constitute an overwhelming advantage in Russia in terms of economic strength and conventional military strength, Russia can still use limited resources to show its huge damage to the United States international order on the regional issue. This can be understood as the Russian version.Asymmetric combat.Simply summarize, North Koreas reinforcements are not a necessity for Russia. Instead, it may be that North Korea hopes to get Russias military technology and resource supply;By controlling the geopolitical balance changes brought about by the military cooperation brought about by the Russian and North Korea, this means that Russia, which is in trouble, means extremely cost -effective, which is probably the "political economy" logic that "anti -Ukuroid Russia" can occur.
Cope of Western countries
South Korea, which first announced the news, has always been the most intense response.President Han Xiyue held an emergency safety meeting and stated that he would consider directly assisting Ukraine to assist the killing weapons according to the situation, and sent an observation team to monitor the movement of the army.
After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, South Korea as an American ally and as the top weapon exporter of the ranking, but has always insisted on not sending military fire directly to Ukraine.EssenceAt the same time, some Korean companies are different from European and American companies, and they try to stay in the Russian market in various ways.
South Koreas "good intentions" are not in vain. Russian Ambassador to Korea, Jiunovev, once said in an interview that "South Korea is the most friendly among the unfriendly countries."Although the relationship between the two countries in such a "praise" is a bit ridiculous, it also reflects that even though Russia has been unable to implement the "equivalent diplomacy" between North Korea and South Korea, the relationship between Russia and South Korea has not ruptured.For Russia, I do not want to cooperate with North Korea to completely lose South Korea, a Western camp country with a good cooperation history for decades.
At present, South Koreas "obstruction strategy" obviously failed to prevent the DPRK army from entering the war.However, the South Korean side has not given up. From the statement of Yin Xiyue, it can be seen that the South Korean side has not directly broken the military aid red line, and it still leaves any room to say that it is necessary to consider exporting Ukrainian weapons depending on the situation.The reaction in the United States and Europe is relatively calm, indicating that the North Korean army will make the "significant upgrade of the situation". After all, the countermeasures that the West can use in the West will be exhausted for the two countries that have been imposed by thousands of sanctions.
However, it should be objectively pointed out that if the Korean army eventually participated in the war, it would be one of the most significant changes since the beginning of the Ukraine War.Even Belarus, an alliance that was sanctioned at the same time as Russia, was just an open territory as the base for Russia to attack Ukraine. So far, no Belarusian army has participated in the Ukraine War.Although Western countries gave money, they were still taboo for directly sending troops to assist Ukraine.
In addition, it is worth noting that if North Korea really participates in the war, the effects of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on Northeast Asia and Asia -Pacific may be more obvious.Dont forget that the Park Geun -hye government (and the United States behind), who was known for China, was the excuse of the North Korean missile threat and began to deploy the Sade anti -missile system.
