As far as the current situation is concerned, no one dares to guarantee that Trump will continue to support Ukraine, even if you do not consider the remarks about Ukraine made by Trump in the past, and this year Republican Neiichawa Obstruct obstructionThe Congress passed the situation of the aid bill of August. If Trump firmly supports Ukraine, it has already been announced. This can bring great reputation and extensive support to Trump, including support from the Democratic Party and Europe, but what is Trump what?I did not say that only by relying on the friendly relationship with Russian President Putin and Ukraine President Zeleki, it can end this war: you can end a war by private relationships. Do you believe it?
Political scientist Francis Fushan said in an interview with the Financial Times that Trump won the US election and the Republican Party also controlled the two houses of the United States. Considering TrumpDuring the term of the first president, almost completely overthrew all the policies of the former Obama. The US governments foreign policy will change significantly, and the biggest victim is Ukraine.
"Of course, Ukraines of course lost the most, even before the election, Ukraine is very unfavorable in war with Russia. Trump can pass throughDelay weapons transportation to force Ukraine to accept the conditions of Russia, as the Republican House of Representatives did it six months last winter.NATO, even if the United States does not withdraw from NATO, Trump will seriously weaken NATO and prevent the US government from performing the fifth of NATO, which is the common defense mechanism of member states."Without European countries can replace the United States as the leader of the Alliance, so its ability to fight Russia in the future is seriously suspected. On the contrary, Trumps victory will inspire other European populists."
Trump led a series of actions in NATO in NATO, which is likely to affect the United States allies around the world, especially in East Asia."Trump seems to be born against the use of military forces, and it is easy to be manipulated. But the Middle East may be an exception, and he may fully support the war launched by Benjamin Neitanahu to Hamas, Allah and Iran."
The latest research of" War Research Institute "(ISW) seems to agree with Francis Fushans judgment:His willingness to reset Russia -US relations. "Only when the United States cancels all sanctions on Russia and end support for Ukraine, Moscow will accept any adjustment of US -Russian relations."
Trumps series of changes may occur after the president of the United States, and Ukraine and Europe are also preparing.
At a press conference at the end of the Budapests European Political Community Summit, Ukraine President Zelenezki said: "Ukraine needs to be part of NATO, otherwise, Ukraine will seek nuclear ability to protect the ability to protect"Yourself", "I believe Trump heard my voice."
Either add NATO or re-support the nuclear.Although the Ukrainian government "clarified" earlier reports earlier and announced that it would not have nuclear weapons again, no one dared to guarantee that the Ukraine government would not really do this.Outside of nuclear countries can get more understanding: NATO is not accepted. In addition to having nuclear weapons, Ukraine cannot protect themselves, and the Kremlin has been emphasizing all the goals of "special military operations".
As for Europe, the latest article by Bloomberg said that if Trump terminates Ukraines assistance, the European Union will consider adding assistance to Ukraine.At present, EU leaders are trying to find out whether the EU has the ability to support Ukraine alone to continue the war.
Data from the Institute of Economics of the Kills show that since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraines comprehensive war, the European Union has always been the biggest assistant to Ukraine, with a total of 118 billion euros in various types of assistance. The United StatesIt is 85 billion euros.
But the problem is that the role of the United States in military aid Ukraine is almost impossible to replace. The United States not only provides Ukraine the most military assistance, but itThe military industry that is recovering is also vital to Ukraine, such as the continuous expanded 155 mm caliber cannonball production capacity; while some important weapons, including the "Patriot" air defense system, F-16 fighter, and ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, are almost completely dependent onIn the United States, once Trump no longer supports Ukraine, the consequences are unimaginable.
