The recent rumors about TSMC stopping the supply of 7nm chips seem to be intensified, but so far, TSMC has not yet issued official announcements.
It is said that there are three indicators, 7nm, 30 square meters, and 30 billion transistors. Even if the news is true, it is not sure if it is to meet any of these three indicators.To satisfy at the same time.
If you want to be satisfied at the same time, there is still a certain space, because the computing power density is slightly lower and it is not unacceptable.
Another thing is certain, that is, the first two days, the five semiconductor equipment companies of the application materials, Panlin Group, KLA, Tokyo Electronics and ASML received the requirementsLetter, ask them to submit a series of details by December 1, including but not limited to its top 30 customers in China, and any plans to transfer manufacturing business from the United States to overseas.
This is really a bit stormy. It seems that after Lao Chuan went up, our technology upgrades had to be accelerated.
Of course, the semiconductor is the first to be the brunt. I just looked at the market and it was called a fiery.
Regarding the entire semiconductor industry chain, there are many related outstanding companies, I have in -depth analysis
Our semiconductor is currently limited.For equipment and materials, such as the light carved machine that everyone knows, the main task of technology upgrades falls on the shoulders of domestic equipment and material companies.
The boss of semiconductor equipment is of course , which is also the most product layout, but it does not develop lightPlan for engraving., Mainly engraving, film deposition, cleaning, equipment.
In fact, the competitive pressure of Huachuang in the north is also quite high. The etching equipment has China and Micro companies to pursue it hard.The cleaning equipment in Shanghai is also selling well.
However, there are two major barriers to the equipment field. The first is to invest barriers. The equipment is a high -end technology product. Not only is the research and development cycle long, but also the capital investment is very large.
The picture above is the research and development cost of Northern Huachuang in recent years, which is higher in year and year.If this growth rate is maintained, it may reach about 3 billion throughout the year.
Such a large -scale R & D investment is not comparable to any domestic semiconductor equipment company in China. This is why the North Huacchuangneng really builds a platform -type enterprise.
Although other equipment companies are also claiming to promote the construction of platform -type enterprises, it is temporarily larger than the substance.
The other is the customer barrier. The equipment is more sticky than other products, because customers generally do not easily change the equipment, and they are used to cooperation for a long time.
Then the service life of the device is generally relatively long. During the period, there will always be cooperation with parts or consumables, so the industry status will be relatively stable.
And the device needs to be certified by the downstream wafer fab. This certification cycle is not short, and the time takes more than 2 years, so as long as you do n’t have any problems, competitors do not have any problems, and competitors are competitors.Its hard to grab business.
Northern Hua Creation has not only technical advantages, but also has the advantage of the first, so the development speed of these years is very fast.
Last years revenue exceeded 20 billion. The third quarterly report of this year has reached 20.35 billion, and it has increased by 39.5%year-on-year.
This growth will definitely continue, and our semiconductor industry chain is far away from the ceiling.
Profit growth has also been synchronized, and this years performance is better than revenue.
The net profit last year exceeded 4 billion. The third quarterly report of this year has reached 4.46 billion, a 50%year-on-year increase.
When the semiconductor was very sluggish in the first two years, the northern Huachuang relied on domestic replacement and still maintained its performance growth. In the future, our semiconductor must be completely innovative.It will be worse.
And the etching process is becoming more and more complicated. According to Moores Law, the number of components of integrated circuits will be doubled every year and a half to two years.
In terms of technology, when the chip is made, it will use the light carved machine to leave the design marks on the board, and then carve it according to the traces of the painting.
When the number of components is more, it is difficult to achieve a carving, so it is gradually transformed into multiple etching, which is several times.
Multiple etching means that the steps increase, which will lead to a decrease in efficiency. Therefore, more etching machines are needed to improve efficiency, which is undoubtedly conducive to equipment manufacturers.
And as the technology is becoming more and more advanced, the equipment is gradually high -end, and the profitability of the northern Huachuang is gradually increasing.
The gross profit margin reported in the third quarter of this year was 44.22%, which was nearly 5 percentage points compared to 2021, and the net interest rate was 21.91%. Compared with 2021, 2021The year is almost doubled.
With the expansion of various expenses year by year, it can also increase the net interest rate so much. Obviously, the companys competitiveness has greatly improved.
The competitiveness of a equipment company has a great benefit to promote sales of other products.
Starting from the process after 14nm, the demand for equipment will be greatly increased.
For example, multiple etching will produce multiple exposure, multiple deposits, and multiple cleaning, which will be one of the reasons for the sales of multiple core equipment in the North China Creation.
Every time I think of these chip process processes, I cant help but sigh that it is really high -tech and it is very difficult to break through.
For example, there are two main in China to do carving equipment. Northern Huachuang and Sino -Micro Corporation, even if it contains all erosion equipment manufacturers with small volumes, the current localization rateLess than 20%.
There are also many manufacturers even if they do, such as Sino -Micro Corporation, Tuo Jing Technology, Shengmei Shanghai, Micro -Director Nano, and many other companies mentioned earlierIn terms of doing, but the localization rate is still less than 30%.
There are also cleaning equipment. Dont look at this name very simple, just clean it.The rate is less than 30%.
There are also higher -end ions injection equipment and glue -applied development equipment. This is even more difficult, so the localization rate is only less than 5%.
Look at these proportions, that is, in addition to some equipment that is not key, chip production is also very dependent on imports.
Of course, it also means that the growth space of domestic enterprises is still very large, especially in the northern Huachuang. As a leader in semiconductor equipment, a number of key equipment has been deployed.The future must be eating meat.
Remember I analyzed the inventory problem talked about in Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical Last week?
The inventory of the equipment company is relatively complicated. The inventory we generally understand is raw materials and good production products, and it is inventory in the warehouse.
The equipment company is different. After the equipment is produced, it belongs to inventory. After delivery, it still belongs to inventory because the customer has a probation period after the installation and commissioning.
The inventory of Northern Huachuang is growing rapidly every year. This is normal. The third quarterly report has reached 23.2 billion.
The biggest problem in this is whether it can recover the payment and whether it will be bad.
The biggest difference between semiconductor compared to photovoltaic products is that there are no excess problems in mid -to -high -end products. We will find that photovoltaic reports are generally losing money compared to the three industries.It is making money and is still growing.
If our semiconductor really breaks through in the future, it will be the worlds leading leader like photovoltaic, and it will also face fierce competition, but this must be a matter of many years.
Before that, as long as the northern Huachuang continued to do a good job of research and development and launching high -quality products, it would be better for a long time.
It may be because of this reason that it has risen too fiercely during this time.
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