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Source: The content comes from observation from the semiconductor industry, thank you.Morgan Stanley Securities (Damo) released the "Greater China Semiconductor" industry report, saying that artificial intelligence (AI) heat, from 2023 to 2027, the annual compound annual growth rate of AI semiconductors(CAGR) will exceed 40%to US $ 290 billion, accounting for 35%of global semiconductor demand.Among Taiwans stocks, Damo watched a number of accumulated electricity, Wanrun and Jiadeng, and all maintained the "better market" evaluation.
Damo pointed out that in the AI semiconductor market, the CAGR of AI semiconductors will be as high as 91%, which is higher than the growth rate of training AI semiconductors.The "hybrid AI" operation will appear; the CAGR of the customized AI semiconductor is 100%, mainly from the large -scale cloud industry, electric vehicle industry and startup.
Damo pointed out that the promoter of AI semiconductor demand is the generation AI, but it also faces four major growth restrictions.The first is the budget, because the cloud and the enterprises budget in the AI are not unlimited, unless you can use the killing of the killer to increase the return on investment.Followed by energy, AI computing must consume more electricity, and ESG considerations will be generated after all.The third is production capacity, COWOS production capacity will double by 2025.The fourth is regulations. Mainland China is driven by policies.
AI semiconductor face growth restrictions, but there are also solutions.Damo pointed out that, under the law of Moore, the chip has evolved to 3 nanometers and 2 nanometers, which can improve energy efficiency; advanced packaging Cowos/SOIC improves processing information speed;(HBM) Expansion of memory capacity; when the number of customized chips increases, cost and save energy can be reduced.
In the relevant Taiwanese factory, Damo said that TSMC is an empower of AI semiconductor production and a long -term beneficiary.It is optimistic that AI demand is huge, and Damo lists TSMC as the first choice for Greater China semiconductor stocks.
Financial Times: Vague new AI chip economy
At the same time, the Financial TimesThe article said that various strange and wonderful mortgage examples in the history of finance.For example, in the 19th century, Peru used the income obtained from bird manure (a substance made from bats, birds, and seal feces) in the future to guarantee loans for large projects.This feces mixture is an effective fertilizer, and it is easy to buy in the nearby Qincha Islands.Fortunately, the pungent smell of securities is not so large today, but the toxicity is not necessarily smaller.Problem mortgage support securities triggered the 2008 financial crisis.So, the latest financial innovation: What does the mortgage artificial intelligence chip mean?
According to the British "Financial Times", Wall Streets largest financial institution has loaned more than $ 11 billion from the "Neocloud" Group, which holds Nvidia AI chips.These companies include Coreweave, Crusoe, and Lambda to provide cloud computing services for technology companies that develop AI products.They have gained tens of thousands of NVI graphics processing units (GPUs) with the cooperation with this chip manufacturer.With the surging capital expenditure of data center, the companys chip has become a valuable product in the boom of the development of the AI model.
The fanaticism of new technologies is often accompanied by financial innovation, and financial innovation will strengthen this fanaticism.Two centuries ago, during the prosperity of railways in the United States and the United Kingdom, some railway companies obtained loans to laid more tracks, and some loans were guaranteed by existing lines.Now, Neoclouds is following them.They provide data storage infrastructure to artificial intelligence developers through the power purchase agreement.They obtained loans from companies such as Blackstone, Pacific Investment Management Company, Carey and Bellaide, with NVIDIA chips as guarantees, and then allowed them to buy more chips.If a breach of contract occurs, the loan will get chips and lease contracts.
In an industry that is still in its infancy, the rapid growth of the new debt market needs attention.First, chips are unlikely to maintain its mortgage value for a long time.Although the GPU demand is still high, as the hardware reserves are resold and the supply has increased, the supply of supply may increase further after the lease contract expires.New chips developed by NVIDIA or their competitors (including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon) may also weaken the value of existing collateral.
Second, these transactions may push the valuation of the industry.The specific details of the protocol between Nvidia and Neoclouds are unclear.But this chip manufacturer itself is an investor of some startups, and these startups are one of its largest customers.With the help of Nvidia chip to obtain loans, cloud providers can use this fund to purchase more chips from Nvidia.This dynamic may exaggerate the Nvidias benefits, which also means that the Neocloud Group also faces the risk of excessive leverage.Third, the cooperation with the cloud provider may keep Nivine Dada the dominant position of its chip, which increases the risk of market concentration.
The trend of chip -changing securities is still in the budding stage. According to the current loan volume, Wall Streets largest financialists may not worry about their risk exposure.However, this development does reveal some high -risk loans, circular financing and competitive developments, which are supporting the prosperity of artificial intelligence.Investors should be alert to potential traps.Nvidia may wisely draw a clearer boundary between its commercial interests and venture capital interests, which will support market transparency.
Financial innovation is often positive. If it is done well, it can guide capital to projects that promote growth.However, as billions of dollars continue to flow into artificial intelligence infrastructure, the development pressure of developers is increasing.If the risky and opaque financial engineering continues to promote this fanaticism, the price may further deviate from reality.In this case, the pain will be more profound and extensive if adjustment.
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*Disclaimer: This article was originally created by the author.The content of the article is the authors personal point of view. The semiconductor industry observation and reprinting is only to convey a different view, which does not mean that the semiconductor industry observation agrees or supports this view. If there are any objections, please contact the semiconductor industry to observe.
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