Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Li Yiwen
In 2024, the property market is still waiting for "Xiaoyangchun".
On February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the 70 city house price index in January.From the perspective of trend, the decline in housing prices in January 70 was narrowed from the previous month, but continued to decline year -on -year.Data show that in January, the sales prices of new commercial housing in first -tier cities and third -tier cities decreased by 0.3%and 0.4%month -on -month, and the decline was narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.Second -tier cities decreased by 0.4%month -on -month, and the decline was the same as last month.
In terms of year -on -year, the sales price of new commercial housing in first -tier cities decreased by 0.5%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.Second -tier cities rose from 0.1%year -on -year to 0.4%, while third -tier cities decreased by 2.1%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
It is worth noting that the number of cities that decreased from the previous month of new commercial housing and second -hand houses were 56 and 68, which were reduced by 6 and 2 respectively.This is the first 11 months, the phenomenon of rising housing prices has risen for the first time.
From the perspective of policy support, since 2024, the property market has continued good news, and the mortgage interest rate has exceeded expected interest rate cuts.On February 20th, 25 basis points were reduced by LPR above 5 years, which was the largest decline since "anchoring" since 2019. The mortgage interest rate further approached the lowest level in history.
Although many real estate economic experts believe that the current good policy continues to output and the real estate market presents the characteristics of "slow repair", they are in the future real estateThe prediction of the trend is not consistent.Among them, Yan Yuejin, the research director of the E -House Research Institute, was more optimistic. He told Time Finance, "The maximum pressure period of house prices has passed, and it is currently entering the stage of narrowing.
The senior analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center Guan Rongxue, although recognizing the view of the property market, is expected to improve, but still has a reservation for the overall price of price rising.Guan Rongxue believes that the current hovering at the bottom of the house price has not been broken.
and Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Rule Council, believes that in the first quarter of 2024, the price of house prices may continue to fall."Although the decline in new houses and second -hand houses has narrowed, the narrowing is small, and the trend is still the mainstream."
New house prices Shanghai LeadingFrom the perspective of data, the first month of the beginning of 2024, house prices ushered in the long -lost marginal improvement.At the same time that the number of cities in housing prices has increased slightly, the overall decline of house prices in 70 cities show a narrowing trend from the previous month, and the market price shows a certain "slow repair" feature.
From the perspective of the new commercial housing price index of 70 cities in January, the number of cities rose from the previous month, an increase of 4 cities from the previous month;; 56 cities fell, a decrease of 6 cities than last month.In January 70, the average month -on -month decreased by 0.37%, a narrowing of 0.08 percentage points from the previous month; the average increase in cities rose by 0.21%, which was 0.06 percentage points narrowed from the previous month.
From the perspective of the city, Shanghai leads the restoration of house prices in the round.In terms of month -on -month, Shanghai rose 0.4%of 70 cities, up 0.42%year -on -year, and was also among the best.According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, on the occasion of the overall real estate nationwide, house prices in Shanghai have gone out of independence. At present, the prices of new houses in Shanghai have maintained an upward trend for 19 consecutive months.
From the policy point of view, after the promulgation of Shanghais "two-drop and one tone" policy on December 14 last year, in January this yearThe local loosening action of Shanghai restriction policy is frequent.In the context of the continuous reduction of the scope of purchase restriction and the continuous decline in the first purchase ratio, the strong foundation of improving the demand for sex housing has provided a good foundation for the "one riding dust" of Shanghais new house prices.
However, from the perspective of the number of cities, the cities that are stable and rising from the previous round of this round of restoration are mostly in second- and third -tier cities.
Data show that in the first -tier cities, the prices of new houses in Beijing in January fell slightly slightly from the previous month, and the Guangshen declined 0.8%and 0.7%respectively, ranking at the forefront of 70 cities.
and the prices of new houses in second -tier cities such as Wuxi, Changchun, Xian, Quanzhou have risen significantly.Among them, Jilin, Wuxi, and Quanzhou rose 0.3%month -on -month, and the price resumed significantly.In addition, although the prices of new housing in hot second -tier cities such as Changsha and Hangzhou fell in a single month, they still maintained a significant growth trend year -on -year.
"In some second -tier cities in the past, new houses have been developed less in the past, so the contradictions of supply and demand are not as serious as imagined." Yan Yuejin told Times Finance that the real estate price cities are linked to the citys fundamentals.In the environment, the demand for real estate has risen, and some second -tier cities have a small contradiction between supply and demand, and housing prices have increased rapidly in this round.In addition, some cities with sufficient housing prices will rise in the current economy, and housing prices will rise.
For the continued sluggish housing prices in first -tier cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Li Yujia believes that although the loose policies of these two cities are greater than Shanghai, the purchasing power of the real estate market in Guangshen was a foreign population and investment in the past.Sexual demand is large. At present, these two demands are ebb, and local purchasing power, especially just need to improve, is difficult to keep up, which also leads to the continuous decline in Guangshens house prices.
The second -hand housing ring is broken than the full fatigue.There are certain signs of improvement.
Data show that in January, the price of second -hand housing in 70 cities decreased by 0.68%month -on -month, a narrowing of 0.12 percentage points from last month.EssenceIn addition, the price of second -hand housing in 70 cities has also been broken, and Kunming and Sanya have become the only cities in the same rise in the previous month.
Unlike the price of new houses, the price improvement of second -hand housing is common.Among them, the front line decreased by 1.0%month -on -month, a narrowing of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the second and third lines decreased by 0.6%and 0.7%, respectively, and the decrease was narrowed by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month.
However, it should be noted that although the price of second -hand housing has narrowed significantly from the previous quarter, the downward trend of cities in various tier cities is still significantly compared to the same period last year.
In Yan Yuejins view, the current second-hand housing price index is improved, especially the month-on-month decline has narrowed.Under the process of lowering prices in second -hand housing last year, all kinds of landlords took the initiative to adjust the price."The effect of the house purchase policy is actively released, which has a very good orientation. Generally speaking, under the mentality of buying a house in a bullish house, such data also helps to guide buyers to actively enter the market."
This also means that the price of second -hand houses began to squeeze the bubble, re -recovery and develop in a good direction.
However, Li Yujia believes that the modification of the price of second -hand housing in this round is caused by the weakening of the motivation of the small owner again after the price reduction."Increased housing for sale and transfer, the decline in rent in January did not slow down, confirming this trend."
Cities that rises, Guan Rongxue believes that more reasons are that the two are typical tourist cities. Driven by the enthusiasm of the annual fake enthusiasm, the price of second -hand housing has a certain amount of power.
So if the real estate favorable policy is constantly increasing, can the price restoration of the property market in this round sustainable?Where should the price of the property market go in the future?
Yan Yuejin believes that the maximum pressure period of the property market has passed, and it is currently entering the stage of a narrow decline. Last year, house prices have been adjusted."Okay" situation.
Li Yujia, who holds opposition, believes that despite the narrowing of new houses and second -hand house prices, the narrowing is very small, and the trend decline is still mainstream. It is expected to be one in 2024 a one in 2024In the quarter, house prices continued to hover at the low position and continue to fall.
"Due to the rescue of the policy since the end of last year, especially the recent LPR has dropped significantly by 25 basis points. It is expected to usher in Xiaoyangchun in March and April, but the transaction rebound was significantly weaker than 2023 in 2023In the first quarter, in the short term, the transaction volume was insufficient to support house prices, and the trend of narrowing the housing price index decline was not obvious. "
Li Yujia further supplemented, although the trend of narrowing the decline in the housing price indexIt is not obvious, but the possibility of continuing to fall sharply.And with the return of steady growth to the focus of the economy, policy and measures that stabilize the economy and expectations will increase the launch, and the favorableness of house prices will be reflected in the second quarter and later.
Although Guan Rongxue also agrees that the price of the property market is expected to improve, she also stated that the current decline in cities still occupy most of the share, and the decline is still large. Therefore, the current price of new houses is still at the bottomSlowly repair stage.It is expected that the price of new houses and second -hand houses next month may continue to fall, but the probability of decline will continue to keep narrowing or stabilizing.
