At present, the two sessions are held, the policy is still warm, the securities market has recovered the land, and the market investment confidence has rebounded.As a result, the profits of steel companies have narrowed, the dynamic enthusiasm for re -production is not high, and the average daily output of iron water has decreased slightly from the previous month. The demand for iron ore and double focus has weakened.how?And listen to analysts detailed analysis ...
Factors affecting steel prices
Imported iron oreStone inventory climbing
This weeks 45 port imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country this week was 136.0339 million tons, an increase of 4.555 million tons from the Spring Festival.The port inventory fluctuated very much, and todays inventory volume decreased by 728,000 tons from February 18.After nearly 4 consecutive months of fluctuations, the iron ore inventory of ports has risen to the end of March last year.
At present, steel companies are suppressed by profits, and the enthusiasm of re -production is not high. Steel companies are only rigid demand for iron ore, plus traditional imported iron oreIn the peak of the shipping season, port ships have successively arrived in Hong Kong.
The top batch quota was issued in 2024
As of February 23, 31 provinces have disclosed budget reports, and they have announced the situation of approval of local debt quotas in advance.According to the finishing, the total bonds and general debt quotas obtained by the 31 provinces in 2024 were 2280 billion yuan and 432 billion yuan, respectively.The regulatory authorities issued an advance batch limit in accordance with the upper limit of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress.
As cities approve the amount of local debt in advance, boost market investment in the emotion, alleviate local government funding pressure, stimulate more projects to accelerate, MoreMore funds are expected to flow into project investment, increase residents income, stimulate residents consumption, steadily restore economic development, drive the demand for steel, and facilitate the price trend of steel.
The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.74%month -on -month
247 steel plant blast furnace operating rate 75.63%, A decrease of 0.74%from the previous week, a decrease of 5.35%year -on -year; the utilization rate of iron refining capacity of the blast furnace was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.38%month -on -month, a decrease of 3.38%year -on -year; the profit margin of steel mills was 24.68%, a decrease of 0.86, a year -on -year decrease of 14.28%;The average daily iron water output was 2.2352 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 72,900 tons.
The Spring Festival holiday is over, but the downstream terminal project is still low due to weather. The demand for steel has not changed greatly for the time being. Steel companies are affected by profit.The resumption of work is obviously insufficient. This weeks operating rate decreased month -on -month, reducing the demand for iron ore and double focus, and the cost end supports weakened.At present, under the weak supply and demand, the output of steel has decreased, which relieves the pressure of steel supply and facilitate the price trend of steel.
The spot market is steadily rising and falling.
Building materials In the 24 markets, 5 markets fell 10-20 yuan/ton, 1 market rose 10 yuan/ton, thread 20mmhrb400E average price price3976 yuan/ton, a price of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
hot roll 24 markets, 2 markets fell 10 yuan/Tons, the average price of 3 markets rose 10-20 yuan/ton 4.75 hot rolled plate rolls 4054 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day;
In the 23 markets in the 23 markets, the 4 markets fell 10-20 yuan/ton, the 4 markets rose 10 yuan/ton, and the average price of 14-20mm general board was 4149 yuan/ton, which was compared to the previous transaction.The daily price fell 1 yuan/ton.
Futures shock and fall
22nd black threaded steelThe main force fell 3, closing at 3790, a decrease of 0.08%; the main force of the hot roll rose by 1, closing 3905, rising 0.03%; the main force of coking coal fell 11.5, closed at 1766, a decrease of 0.65%;The stone rose 4 to close at 899, an increase of 0.45%.
Comprehensive Perspective
The current macro policy is still better, but downstreamThe terminal transactions are weak, and the steel spot market merchants have fallen into market expectations. In addition, the inventory of iron ore in ports has risen, and the number of port ships to ports has risen.After the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for downstream terminals has not yet started. The profit loss of steel companies has increased, the production enthusiasm of steel companies is poor, and the supply and demand are weak.Like worse, It is expected that the price of steel will run steadily, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton.
