Recently, Xu Gao, chief economist of BOC International Securities, said in an interview with "Economists Economist 2024 China Economy" that in early 2024, house prices still face certain downward pressure, but in the next 1 to 2 to 2In the year, the room for rising house prices in big cities cannot be underestimated.He suggested that if residents have just needed or improved sexual needs, they can start considering their shots in 2024.
He pointed out that in the short term, the contradiction between real estate supply and demand is overdue, and the downward pressure on house prices is high.There are two reasons for the excessive supply: first, the demand side.The credit risk of real estate developers has greatly suppressed real estate demand to a large extent. People dare not buy a house and are worried that they will not be delivered after buying.The housing has always been the mainstream of the sales of commercial housing in my country, and the sales area of the housing housing once exceeded 80%.Once the people dare not buy a housing house, the demand for real estate will naturally be sluggish.
Second, supply end.In the past few years, the housing market has been weak, and developers have also tended to complete the selling house as soon as possible. Therefore, in the various indicators of various real estate in the past few years, the indicator of the completion area of the house has performed the best. The current completion area of the house is similar to the high point in 2021.
However, Xu Gao emphasized that if the future policy is properly regulated, the real estate industry will return to normalConfidence in commercial delivery, the contradiction between supply and demand will soon reverse.He believes that the current downturn in the real estate market is not normal and will not continue for a long time.
"At the same time, you need to pay attention to an important indicator, and the newly started area of the house." Xu Gao said, "From the introduction of real estate financing tightening policy in 2021 to the present, my countrys houses have started new construction. The area has fallen by more than 2/3. Standing at this time at this time, it can be expected that my country will soon usher in the most serious supply contraction since the 1990s. This is a matter of nailing on board. The supply has a significant contraction, and the market is stabilizing and the demand is restored. By then, the rise in house prices is a high probability event, especially the first and second -tier cities. The series is a heavy interview program jointly launched by Observer.com and the China Research Institute of Fudan University. The famous economists at home and abroad are invited to forward and described in many fields such as real estate, local debt, rural rejuvenation, financial power, and high -quality development 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 The economy of the year.
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