Lu Qiyuan analyzed the Chinese real estate market, especially US debt mines.
He said that there are external reasons and internal reasons for the explosion. The external reasons are very clear.In the economy, all the assets and liabilities running around the land rent are the balance sheet of the balance sheet, which has a strong externality.
Among them, the real estate companies can borrow so many foreign debts during a specific historical period. Do you think it is accidental?Are foreign financial institutions crazy?Will it give the scale of such a high foreign debt or the scale of foreign debt?
They have known what it will happen. The 170 billion US dollars are nothing compared to Chinas total economic volume. However, as a detonator, it is enough.A detonator of the bomb, the detonator did it, the cost was a total of $ 250 billion.
Among them, less than 100 billion has been detonated, which involves about 55 billion US dollars in the internal defense part.Let me talk about the external first. They know that it should be to explode the real estate, that is, the excitement point of the real estate bubble is foreign debt. From the foreign debt to explode all the debts, and then piercing through the Chinese real estate bubble.
Calling the Chinese economy into a serious decline or danger, Gu Chaoming warns China that China may fall into a Japanese decline. The Japanese decline starts from 1985.In 2025, 40 years.
Will China fall into a Japanese recession?Personally dont think not.
Lu Qiyuan believes that in 1985, Japanese thinkers or thinkers and Chinese thinkers today are not the same as they are, because it is a kneeling nation, which is a spiritual spiritual.The creeping nation, they have no way to complete the depth as us today. They are creating a land rental economy outside, shaping the lease economy, and their land renting economy routines., Then smuggle to form a routine of capital colonial.
But during this period, they may have been cut, because the political life of American politicians is short-lived.Biden must face the 2024 election, and the US economy must play the entire economy of China before 2024, and he must do this.Although it may not be appropriate for external and internal arrangements, the United States has begun to start, and they have exploded this part.
Coincidentally, before, the famous economist Lang Xianping also had an incisive analysis of the real estate giant US debt mines. Professor Lang also believed that this may be a huge conspiracy of the US emperor.
Professor Lang said that since March last year, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 consecutive times.Caused a huge blow.
The interest rate hike was added from 0.25 to 5.50. Professor Lang couldnt help but sigh: too crazy.
The United States said that interest rate hikes are already very low in terms of inflation, and now it is only 3%. After that, the Federal Reserve said that when there is still a rate hike, public opinion is uproar. The inflation in the United States has arrived.3%, no need to continue to raise interest rates at all.
Why do the United States do this?That is, the Fed will release a strong signal to the market, and the US dollar interest rate will continue.At this time, please think about it, what should Chinese real estate developers do?
It is very simple, that is, the US real estate developers US debt is still missing. It was previously mine. Old beauty crazy more than 10 violent rate hikes.No US debt.
Chinese real estate developers need to pay US $ 61.4 billion in US $ 61.4 billion, of which 56.4 billion U.S. dollars default. What does it mean?That is, most of the housing companies cant afford money, not only cant afford it now, but it will not be even worse in the future;
Because the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
Real estate developers are so anxious like ants on a hot pot, so what should I do?
Professor said that the only way is to quickly discount the selling houses and accelerate the return of cash repayment, otherwise there will be only thunderstorms.Essence
If all real estate giants such as Evergrande, Sunac, Country Garden and other real estate giants are discounted together, what will happen?
Dont think about it, it must be the collapse of confidence, the house price is sharp, and the land cannot be sold.Treating Chinas systematic financial crisis.
What is the last situation?Cut the leeks by Lao Mei!
What should I do?
Professor Lang gave three magic weapons to prevent the United States of cutting leeks!
The first magic weapon: the property market reduces leverage, no price is reduced.
Three red line policies in 2021, not allowed housing companies to increase leverage; in 2022, strict purchase and loan restrictions are implemented, and the real estate market price is frozen by restricting transaction methods.If the price does not fall, the local debt crisis will not break out;
The second magic weapon: Local debt financial bomb is being demolished.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinas local debt should be 94 trillion. After the local guarantee debt is clearly sorted out, it should not be allowed to form debts at will. Local governments have reported to the risk of hidden debt in the establishment of counties.To resolve the pilot plan, the central government has initially approved the plan and quota. It is expected that 1.5 trillion special bond financing bonds will be issued in the second half of the year. Local financial bombs will not erupt.
Third Board Ax: Policy is loose and confident;
Chinas real estate market will relax, housing companies have survived the darkest momentEssence
The Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, the Central Bank and the State Administration of Finance Supervision jointly issued a document to promote the implementation of the purchase of the first house loan to recognize the housing and do not recognize the loan policy.Recognizing loans, this has never been before, indicating the loosening of the real estate market.
It still effectively prevents the US emperors crackdown and harvesting of our real estate. It is already very good.
Experts have also been talking about the rescue market recently. Dr. Ren said:
Real estate is an important pillar. Do not land hard!The famous economist Ren Zeping talked about the real estate market again. He said that he must objectively evaluate the historical contribution of real estate and face the problems encountered in development.This is very important.
He also listed a lot of data in real estate, proved that real estate is still the pillar industry.Living, employment issues have also been seriously affected, which will affect the sustainable and rapid and healthy development of the Chinese economy!Intersection
Dr. Ren enumerated the following data to prove that real estate is an important pillar and cannot fall.
In 2023, my countrys real estate industry added value GDP ratio is 5.9%. Real estate is an important pillar of the national economy. In 2023 The above; the real estate industry drives the production activities of dozens of upstream and downstream industrial chains; local governments rely on land finance. In 2022, real estate -related revenue accounted for about 26.0%; in 2023, the real estate industry still directly resolved nearly 13 million employment in my countrys real economy.
Dr. Ren also said that saving real estate is very simple, and he can get three big moves.
In fact, the times are different. To save real estate fundamentally, it is necessary to significantly reduce the price or increase the income of the people.If you do n’t buy a house, the poor cannot afford it. This is a dead knot. As the famous entrepreneur Cao Dewang said, there is a house to sell it quickly. In the future, the house becomes a transaction and trading between the rich.The status quo of demand cannot be changed. Can real estate be saved? What do you think?Please leave a message in the comment area!
