The first trading week of the year later, the strong strength of A shares is indeed impressive, because the Shanghai Index has re -stood 3,000 points, which means that after 2635.09 from February 5th, the index of the index, the indexIt has risen about 10%, and it is even more exaggerated that from February 6 to February 23, it has increased by 22.59%(from 1503.44 to 1977.89).Is it necessary to reduce the proportion of overseas asset allocation from newly returned A shares?This weeks focus is on this issue.
First review the market market this week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 2865.90 points on Thursday, 3004.88 points on Friday, and the range increased by 4.85%.The GEM refers to the closing of 1726.86 points on Thursday and 1758.19 points on Friday. The interval increased+0.67%.The closure of 15996.82 points this week rose 0.57%.
From the data point of view, most of the indexes increased in the range of 0-1%this week.It is the Hang Seng Index of the same kind, and this weeks increase is only 2.36%far from the Shanghai index.The phenomenon of strong Shanghai, deep weakness or deep Shanghai, and Shanghai weaknesses have not been big, indicating that the inflow of funds is more violent.Although the market is generally rising, it is more preferred to be in the market. Isnt this a structured market?In this way, I think of the fund bull market where the market starts to hold the group after 2018. It can be said that as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index strengthens, the A -share has gone out of the downturn into a normal shock, but the US stocks have not obviously weakened, at least at leastThe GEM index is strong. The analysis of the index alone has not been able to increase the view of the A shares for the time being.
Repel the main performance of the market this week.This is like this: [Remarks: This is the average increase in the sector, not the increase in the sector index]
, The leading sector with a large transaction volume (more than 100 billion) is the Internet (127.5 billion), software services (272.7 billion), and communication equipment (192.6 billion).Equipment (13.36%), Internet (17.93%), software services (14.44%), advertising packaging (10.84%), media entertainment (12.68%), General Machinery (11.97%), Cultural and Education Leisure (17.83%), communication equipment (11.97%), the two intersect in the Internet, software services, and communication equipment. These three sectors are estimated to be familiar with each other, that is, the sections with the most inflow and outflow of funds before the holiday.
Because it is a general rise this week, it has not found a decline section, but in terms of gain, it is a high dividend sector such as banks, insurance, and electricity.A significant change does not indicate that the incremental funds have no difference in the return market.Or in this way, after the index has stabilized recently, the previously active TMT sector took the lead in gaining the favor of funds. Other sectors were more fixes after emotional recovery. The current data has not found evidence of full inflow of funds.It is a structured bull market. At least the market stops.
From the publicly available capital conditions, the northern direction funds buy 10.698 billion this week, and the financing balance (borrow money stocks stocks stocks (borrowing money stocks trading stocks and stocks.) This week, the net outflow was mainly based on the net inflow, and the net inflow was 32.807 billion;Overall, the capital surface this week is mainly based on huge net inflows (three funds are not the same as the same direction), of which domestic funds flow is about 30 billion (about-150 billion yuan in the previous week), and the flow of funds in the north directionAbout 26 billion).Because the funds began to return, the index also had technical restoration requirements after continuous adjustment. The two easily obtained a resonance and rebounded, but everyone knows that the amount of funds that had flowed beforeThere is also the potential of technical restoration. As for whether you can re -go cattle, you need to observe.
Finally, look at the transaction volume: The average transaction volume this Sunday was 894.266 billion (the average amount last week was 960.775 billion).This week, there is no new funds to enter the market, but continue to rise in the stock game. From the perspective of the repair market, there are a total of 1,644 stock daily limit after the limit of the daily limit in February.The possibility of fixing up, but after the repair is over, it is only the market market in the early stage. If you want to really stabilize and strengthen, you will continue to work hard next week.
So you can answer a very classic question now: why the index rises to 3000 points, and your market value has not returned.The first reason: the Shanghai Index has risen and the CSI 2000 has risen, but the structured market is mainly; the second reason: the funds left before the rebound did not return to a comprehensive return, and even divergent; the third reason:Although there are hundreds of daily limit every day, the sequelae of thousands of stocks have existed before.Statistics, since this year,
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has increased by 1%annually,%,
Creating refers to the annual decline of 7%,
National Certificate fell 13%in 2000.
Performance level data:
Stocks of the Red Plate 639 639Home, accounting for nearly 13% 500 stocks with a decline of 30%+, accounting for 10% 1,057 stocks with a decrease of 20%-30%, accounting for 31%-20% of the stocks of 1,492 stocks, accounting for 30%.
Therefore, the index belongs to the index, individual stocks belong to the fund, the fund belongs to the structured market, and it has not found a phenomenon of comprehensive good goal.No book.
Analyze the US stocks again. The Nasi fell for four days this week.You can take a look. The stock market of other peoples house has fallen for four days a week, and it has risen, and it has reached a new high in the year. Do you think such a stock market risks is high or there are more opportunities?Objective analysis, the current Na index is still running in the first major repair waves. Although there have been four adjustments before, the adjustment time is not over two weeks, which does not match the previous adjustment of the wave time cycle (surrounded).The adjustment from Monday to Wednesday, coupled with the sharp reduction of Congress Mountain stock gods, many analysts believe that the US stock bull market is over.I think, people do n’t even finish the first wave. Now even if the two waves are adjusted, it is estimated that the lowest point may be higher than in the early 2024. If you know that the repair waves are constantly setting up, it is estimated that the holding cost is lower than the daily stagnation every day.The cost of adding positions at the end of the second wave of US stocks is low.Instead of adjusting the US stocks every day, it is better to ignore costs to participate in fixed investment. It is not retreated until the fifth largest rising waves appear. Since it is simple and safe.
After the above analysis, it can be considered that A shares temporarily separate from the risk zone that continues to fall.After that, it will continue to strengthen or return to the weak market in 2023. Now the main force dare not pack tickets. In the process of hitting a high innovation, it is even more terrible that the Nvidia of a market is as high as 3 Maotai.After the announcement, it can rise by 16%in a day. How can I play?For U.S. stocks, there is no interest rate windows at present. Once the market is more liquid after the interest rate cut, I really dont know when the big bull market can rise this time.In other words, there is a certain probability of strengthening after A shares stop falling, and U.S. stocks will definitely strengthen, depending on how everyone choose.
Before looking forward to A shares next week, review the market view last week.Talking about the stability of the decline in the environment where the funds are exited sharply. The data is not supported. Next week, the highlights are still the flow of funds, because it is the key to discovering that the return of funds is the key to A shares.In the same reason, as long as the funds continue to flow into US stocks, the new high of US stocks can still be expected.The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has continued to move down in the past two weeks. Although the rebound strength is larger than the previous stage, there is no sustainability. Sustainability is the key to stability. In case of the Zhou Yin line next week, all the mid -line strategies will continue to appear.Cant talk about it.A rebound occurred before the GEM knuckles, and the Zhouyang line was strong, but this rebound appeared after 5 weeks of continuous adjustment. It was impossible to explain the problem alone.I think it is necessary to continue to observe time for one to two weeks.In the direction of the subject matter, because it is the stock game, the funds have not seen obvious flow in the near future. As long as the market index is stabilized, all sectors may become the target of capital inflows.During the festival, the artificial intelligence industry has become a transformative upgrade. I guess that the TMT industry is more likely to benefit, and the stock game will return from scratch.We just need to remember that it is still the stock game. Before there is no clear data signal, please do not think that A shares have the characteristics of the bull market.
From the perspective of last week, it is clear that this view is 99.99%correct.For example, the funds return A -shares is steady, and the new highs of US stocks have appeared. In terms of subject matter, because my judgment is the stock game, there is no capital inflow in the early stage. This week, no funds have flowed out of funds.Deep, the strength of funds in the state of stock games is the strongest.Therefore, from this perspective, the characteristics of A -share stock game have not changed. Whether it can exceed expectations depends on whether it can break the market performance after the stock game, that is, there will be a section that continues to do more!Because the stock game is still there, in terms of index level, US stocks are still better than A shares. Therefore, I watched it like this next week:
1. The return of funds will affect the intensity of the market. If there will be a larger scale of funds in A shares next week, Jiu Lianyang, Ten Lianyang, and even thirteen yang are okay, but if the funds will have a net outflow, the market will have a net outflow, and the market will be in the market.Differentians will appear, and they will be caught in the previously weak shock.U.S. stocks are still innovating, and it obviously gets the attention of funds. Do not trust the views of US stocks.
2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Weekly Lianyang, the intensity is equivalent to the previous two bottoms, which can be confirmed that it has stopped falling.From the past experience, the adjustment of the adjustment after confirming the rebound is not strong, and you can get on the bullish on the car (if there is a strong recovery, it is not a chance but a risk). Of course, this is the index level.Or it can refer to the mid -line layout with reference to the recent influence index rising plates such as high dividends.
3. The GEM Index did not win the Shanghai index this week, because the GEM adjustment is several times more tragic than the Shanghai Index, Changyang hanging starWithout Zhongyangs rebound, it cannot explain that the GEM has a stabilized signal. It can only be taken at the ultra -decline. Once the rise is unable to adjust, please stop the profitability immediately.Only a simple gain like the Shanghai Index can eliminate the markets fear of adjustment.Next week, remember that the current market is only the stock game market, just the stock game market, just the stock game market!
4. In the direction of the subject matter, although the entire line has risen this week, it is still controversial in the return of the stock game.The GEM has basically not risen), and you need to keep your eyes next week.If the market is found to be at the fast pace of rotation of the sector, this is a characteristic of the stock game. If there is continuity or the entire plate is strong, it can be considered as the phenomenon of capital return.The processing methods of the two are different: the former needs to stop at high, and the latter can randomly bullish.There is no strategy for US stocks to spend so much.For example, from November to the present, the Dow Jones Index has entered a technical bull market with an increase of 20.71%. The key is that most of the domestic investors can only make a fixed investment index, which is much simpler than the topic selection of stock selection.
Provincial stream: Although the Shanghai Index returns 3000 points, most friends still only earn indexes and do not make money.The increase can only be concluded from the current data that can only be concluded that A -shares focus on the stock game. The structured market is mainly. As long as there is no rhythmic rhythm, it is not related to you that the Shanghai Index rising 500 points has nothing to do with you.Due to the domestic limitations, it is easier for U.S. stocks to analyze. Because the index enters the structured bull market, it is enough to continue to watch the bullish. If the two are compared, the high -definitance can choose the beauty stocks to pay attention.You can try the short -term heating in A shares.
Special Tips:
1, the above content is just a personal investment diary, without guiding functions, does not have the guidance functionEssence
2, the point of view is for reference only, whether to follow the idea operation requires investors to judge by themselves.
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