Zhitong Finance APP was informed that CITIC Securities has released a research report that since 2024, the market has increased the popularity of the market in the background of supply constraints and inflation, and the overall performance of the upstream resource sector is relatively strong.Looking forward to 2025, it is expected that domestic demand will recover under the guidance of strong policy, and aluminum sections with domestic demand -related varieties will continue to be strong. Steel and coal will have profit re -distribution and mild price recovery expectations, and refrigerant and other chemical products are expected to benefit.Commodity supply side logic will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to varieties such as crude oil, natural gas, copper, lithium, and tin with long -term supply constraints or short -term disturbances.In addition, in the context of frequent geopolitics, it is recommended to pay attention to the rare earth permanent magnets and beneficiary interest rate reduction cycles and precious metal sectors with strategic attributes.
The main point of CITIC Securities is as follows:
Market review: The commodity market has experienced shocks and differentiation since 2024.
Since 2024, the market has increased the popularity of the market in the background of supply constraints and the background of inflation, and the overall performance of the upstream resource sector has performed strongly.At the same time, affected by factors such as the "temperature difference" of the domestic economy and the disturbance of overseas raw materials, the cyclical segment sector presents the characteristics of differentiation. Global pricing varieties such as gold, copper, and crude oil have risen significantly or show high toughness.The prices of varieties such as threads and coking coal are weak.
Demand recovery expectations are optimistic about the price elasticity of strong domestic demand -related varieties.
The domestic policy continues to increase, and the economic promotion is stable. The bank believes that the policy effect will gradually appear.At the same time, some varieties such as aluminum and refrigerant have strong supply constraints. The supply constraints such as steel and coal have been further strengthened. The bank is optimistic about price elasticity. It is expected that the aluminum price operating range in 2025 is 20,000 ~ 23,000 yuan/ton, and the price center of the hot roll is 4,000 yuan./Ton, the price center of the 5500 calories of Qingang 5500 calories is 890 yuan/ton, and the price of three generations of refrigerant is expected to reach 55,000 yuan/ton.
The bank recommends that the relevant varieties of domestic demand -related varieties of aluminum, coal, steel, and refrigerant plates are recommended.
Supply constraints or local disturbances, pay attention to crude oil, natural gas, copper, lithium, tin, etc.
Supply disturbance is the leading logic of investment in the resource sector in 2024. Under the long -term supply constraint effect, the banks expected price of copper, tin and other varieties will continue the high operating trend, and the phased supply shortage will be shortage.Or disturbances exacerbate products such as crude oil, and some long -term downturn varieties or narrowing due to the narrowing of supply looseness will usher in a rebound.The bank is expected to be $ 60 ~ 70 per barrel in 2025, the price range of TTF natural gas in Dutch TTF is 20 ~ 45 euros/MWh, the copper price range is 9000-11,000 US dollars/ton, and the tin price operating range is 3.5~ 40,000 US dollars/ton, lithium prices are expected to rebound to 100,000 yuan/ton.
The bank recommends paying attention to crude oil, natural gas, copper, lithium, tin and other sectors.
Frequent geopolitical disturbances, focusing on rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals and other varieties.
Frequent geopolitical risks disturbing. my country has increased attention to the variety of strategic attributes and anti -counterable capabilities. Rare earth is the heavy weapon of the country. Under supply constraints and geographical risks, the bank is expected to be 2025 2025. 2025 is expected to be 2025. The price of annual oxidation is expected to rise to 45,000 to 550,000 yuan/ton.In terms of precious metals, the bank is expected to re -dominate the investment of the golden sector. The hedging emotions caused by geopolitical conflicts are also conducive to the allocation of gold.In terms of silver, in addition to the logic of gold and silver comparison prices, the expansion of the supply and demand gap is also expected to drive the price of silver.The bank is expected to have a golden price operating range of US $ 2400-3,000/ounce in 2025, and the price of silver price is $ 30 to $ 40/ounce.
The bank recommends that the rare earth permanent magnet and precious metal sectors are recommended.
Risk factor: The risk of a sharp decline in commodity prices; the recovery of demand at home and abroad is less than expected;The progress of new capacity construction is less than expected; the severe risk of safety supervision and environmental protection situation exceeds expected.
This article comes from: Zhitong Finance Network
