Incident: In October 2024, the new RMB loan was 500 billion yuan, expected to 609.3 billion yuan, 738.4 billion yuan in the same period last year; the new social integration was 1.4 trillion, it was expected to 1.44 trillion, the same period last year was 1.84 trillion;The growth rate of social finance was 7.8%, the previous value was 8%; M2 was 7.5%year-on-year, and the expected 7.0%, the previous value of 6.8%; M1 was -6.1%year-on-year, and the previous value -7.4%.
Core view: Driven by a number of incremental policies such as recent stable real estate, the data of credit social integration in October can be described as rare improvement.Worry: Hi, resident loans have been increased again year -on -year. This is the first time since February of this year. Residents short -term loans and medium and long -term loans have been increased year -on -year. Both M1 and M2 growth have improved.Speed up and so on; worry, the enterprises medium and long -term loans for 8 consecutive months have been rarely increased year -on -year, and the growth rate of social integration continues to innovate low, and the essence is still insufficient.Looking back, continue to reminder: The underlying logic of the current policy has changed, especially the imagination space of the central governments leverage is obviously open.Specific to the currency end, the general direction will continue loose, and it is likely to reduce the standards during the year.
1. On the whole, the scale of the credit agency in October is lower than expected and seasonal, but the structure improves significantly, especially the resident loan time is 8 sieces after 8 residential loans.The monthly turn to increased more than the year -on -year, and the growth rate of M1 and M2 also improved significantly.
2. Look at it later, continue to remind: The underlying logic of the current policy has changed, especially the imagination space of the central leverage is obviously opened, and the currency direction will continue loose.
& GT; 9.24 Packal financial policy, 9.26 Politburo Conference, 10.12 Finance Publication Conference, and 11.8 Standing Committee of the Standing Committee of the 11.8 Peoples Congress, a series of policies have accelerated, both with current policies.It also has a long -term institutional arrangement, pointing to the underlying logic of the current policy, especially the space for the central government to increase leverage.
& GT; Specifically to the currency end, the central bank is approaching the direct "end", and the Chinese version is quantitatively loose on the road.In terms of operation, the reduction in the annual reduction is still possible. The main purpose is to replace MLF and cooperate with fiscal debt. In terms of interest rate cuts, the 11.8 central bank Q3 cargo report emphasizes that "rationally promoting the promotion of prices as an important consideration to grasp the monetary policy" points to the follow -up to follow -upThe interest rate cut is still available. If it is fast, it is expected to be January next year.
3. In the short term, there are 4 attention:
& gt; it may still be reduced during the year, and the interest rate reduction may be further reduced in the first quarter of next year;
& GT; December Politburo Conference and the Central Economic Work Conference, setting the economic and policies next year;
& gt;Later, the formation of physical workload such as wide credit promotion and excavators;
& gt; stabilized the landing effect of real estate, especially the actual trend of housing prices and commercial housing sales.
The text is as follows:
1, the scale of new credit is lower than expected, and it is also lower than that ofSeasonal, but the structure improves, especially the residential end.Specifically, residential loans have increased to increase year -on -year. This is the first time since February of this year. The short -term loan of residents has increased by year -on -year, and the consumption has improved under the stimulation of subsidy policies.During the same period, the sales of real estate sales have been consistent; the enterprises medium and long -term loans have continued to increase, and the willingness to invest in enterprises is still weak. The follow -up of the special debt may improve, and the characteristics of the volume can be relieved.
& gt; In terms of total, the new credit was 500 billion yuan in October, an increase of 238.4 billion year -on -year, lower than expected (market expectations of 609.3 billion), and below the season lower than the seasonSexuality (the average value of the same period in the past three years is 726.6 billion).Among them, residential loans increased by 160 billion yuan, an increase of 194.6 billion year -on -year, and had increased less than 8 consecutive months. Corporate loans increased by 130 billion yuan, an increase of 386.3 billion year -on -year, and a year -on -year increase of 6 consecutive months.The year -on -year less increased by 98.8 billion.
& GT; residential loans are better than seasonal, short-term loans of residents have increased by year-on-year, and consumption has improved under stimulation of subsidy policies and other stimuli.The year -on -year in the middle and long -term loans has also increased, which is consistent with the improvement of real estate sales in the same period.In October, short -term loans of residents increased by 49 billion, an increase of 154.3 billion year -on -year, which was the first time since February this year to increase year -on -year. It may be related to consumption of residents, which may be related to consumer subsidies and Double Eleven activities.The new increase of 110 billion yuan, an increase of 39.3 billion year-on-year, consistent with the performance of real estate sales during the same period (October 30, the sales area of the commercial housing of the large and medium-sized cities narrowed to -3.8%, the sales area of second-hand housing in 13 cities was 11.5%year-on-year, and it was obvious from September.improve).Subsequent housing mortgage interest rate reduction policies have been implemented, residents may improve in advance, and residents medium- and long -term loans may stabilize stabilized in the middle and long -term loans, and it will also help residents to improve consumption.
& GT; The enterprises medium and long-term loan continues to increase, and the willingness to invest in enterprises is still weak.The characteristics are relieved, and the bills and short loans have rarely increased year -on -year.In October, the short -term loan of enterprises decreased by 190 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 13 billion yuan; medium and long -term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, an increase of 212.8 billion year -on -year, and the year -on -year year -on -year increase was increased.The related supporting financing may improve; bill financing was 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 148.2 billion year -on -year, and the characteristics of rushing were improved.
2. The scale of new social integration is lower than expected and seasonal.Drag, the growth rate of the existing social integration fell 0.2 percentage points to 7.8%compared with the previous month.
& gt; In terms of total amount, in October, the new social integration was 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 448.3 billion year -on -year, slightly lower than expected (market expectations of 1.44 trillion),It was also slightly lower than the seasonal (the average value of 1.46 trillion in the same period in the past three years), and the growth rate of the stock social integration fell by 0.2 percentage points to 7.8%from the previous month, renewing the lowest level of history.
& gt; From the perspective of the structure, the RMB loan of social merging in October increased by 298.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 184.9 billion; new government bonds were newly added;1.05 trillion, a significant increase of 514.2 billion year -on -year, is the main dragging item of social integration. It is mainly related to the issuance of special recycling bonds in October last year (issued special recycling bonds in October last year)101.5 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion year -on -year; off -balance sheet financing decreased by 144.3 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 112.9 billion. The decrease of less discount bank acceptance bills was mainly driven year -on -year, which may be related to the decline in the demand for rushing.
3, M1 growth rate has improved from the previous month. It is the first time since February of this year.Related; M2s growth rate has also increased compared to last month, and fiscal expenditure may be the main driving.
& GT; October M1 -6.1%year-on-year, the decrease was 1.3 percentage points significantly compared with the previous month. It is the first time since February., Special debt to accelerate the implementation of factors; the M2 growth rate was 7.5%year -on -year, and it also increased by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The acceleration of fiscal expenditure may be the main driving.The deposit side, 600 billion yuan in deposit in October, an increase of 44.6 billion year -on -year.Among them, fiscal deposits increased by 595.3 billion, a significant increase of 774.8 billion year -on -year, and the point of fiscal expenditure was significantly accelerated.
Risk reminder: policy strength exceeds expectations, local debt risk evolution exceeds expectations, and external environment exceeds expectations.
Author:
Bear Garden, S0680518050004
Mu Renwen, S0680523060001
Original Title: Behind the Social Rong and Easy and Woman in October
Article Source: Xiongyuan Observation
