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At this moment, the national soil shooting market is in full swing.
Last Wednesday, Chengdus central urban area ushered in three residence -related land transfer.Among them, a 58.9 acres of plot located in the Dasuan section of Chengdu High -tech Zone. After 84 rounds of competition, eight housing companies were eventually won by Sichuan Yuanda at 26,300 yuan/square meter and a premium rate of 46%.
The price of the high -tech zone has refreshed the floor price record of the high -tech zone, becoming the regional unit price "new place king".
In the Beijing Turkham in Beijing the day before, the two plots of Gongde Temple in Haidian District, both touched the upper limit of the land price, were traded, and were respectively sold by Greentown China and Yuexiu Real Estate, respectively.In the middle of the shake, the transaction amount was 5.175 billion yuan and 6.3825 billion yuan, respectively, with a premium rate of 15%.
There are 3 land transfer in Beijing this time, with 12.753.5 billion yuan in gold, and they are all premium transfer.
Near the end of the year, the high premium plot frequently appeared.
Hangzhou, this city that was fully released last year, a total of three soil auctions were conducted in October, and 6 plots were successfully transferred. The total total construction surface was 395,000 square meters.The total transaction amount was 9.31 billion yuan, and the average premium rate was 19.43%.
On October 15, Hangzhou held the first soil auction after "Hangzhou Five".
On October 22, the last price limit plot of Jiangwan New Town passed 77 rounds of competition, which is also Greentown China, with a total price of 3.42 billion yuan, floor price 50717 yuan/square meter/square meterThe premium rate was won at 28.55%, which refreshed the record price record of Hangzhous house.
You may think that Greentown China is very good, but the data of the middle finger research institute shows that as of the end of October, in Hangzhou in the base camp, Binjiang Group ranked at the top of the list with 21.8 billion yuan in land and interest.It is the proper ground snake in Hangzhou.
In addition to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, they are trying to take out the "bottom of the box", and multiple hot cities have also recently increased land supply.
On November 2, the Shenzhen Public Resources Trading Center issued an announcement that the T107-0107 plot located in Yuehai Street, Nanshan District, with a construction area of about 263,000 square metersMi, the starting price is as high as 12.65 billion yuan.
At the end of October, Shanghai listed the seventh batch of 10 plots of centralized transfer, involving seven districts including Yangpu and Pudong. The transfer area was 249,600 square meters.It reached 25.6431 billion yuan.
Data Source: Shanghai property market, rice house statistics
After the 926 policy is released, thisA round of soil shooting suddenly burst!
For the market, it has been silent for too long. The policies such as 926 have just activated the market again. For the future property market, this time soil auction is very good.Maybe it is an introduction.
In fact, the recent transaction volume has indeed improved, especially in the transaction volume of first -tier cities, which has changed very quickly.
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But another problem is that although the current soil shooting market is hot, from the entire 2024 market, the first three threeIn the quarter, the national land market continued to shrink. The scale of supply and demand for residential land in 300 cities across the country decreased by more than 30 % year -on -year, and land transfer funds decreased by more than 40 %.
Data Source: Central Finger Research Institute, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute
The investment in the third and fourth -tier land is almost "cut".In the third quarter, although the soil auction rules were optimized to attract real estate companies, only high -quality housing companies in hot cities were active, and the overall premium rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year.
The current overall attitude of housing companies is still a cautious attitude.
Data show that in the first October of this year, the amount of land and local state -owned enterprises in 22 key cities across the country accounted for about 75%.Essence
The amount of private enterprise land acquisition accounts for less than 20 %, and the overall land acquisition confidence is very weak.
From the perspective of the structure of the land, this round of soil shoots have three obvious characteristics:
The core plots of hot cities have risen the heat, so the premium rate of front lines and core cities has risen. High -premium land is mostly obtained by central state -owned enterprises, and small and medium -sized real estate companies have a lot of pressure. The division of soil auction has further intensified, and the non -core land temperature is limited.More obvious, funds are becoming more and more focused on core cities. From this round of soil auction, in fact, it has already begun to start.
The logic is very simple. Real estate developers and buyers have similar places to some extent. They all hope to obtain cities and locations with superior geographical location and great development potential.
So, in the context of the current centralized supply, due to the restrictions of funds in the short term, many developers are more inclined to invest in limited funds to those high degree of attention.On the quality of the quality.
But everyone must know that the number of high -quality plots is limited. When many developers are scrambling to bid, they will inevitably push up the price of these plots.
For example, this round of land with a total price of more than 10 billion yuan has been listed in Beijing and Shenzhen, and the premium is also very high.
That is to say, the core plot price of the high probability core city in the future will rise as a whole, which is the trend.
Data Source: Middle Finger Research Institute, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute
Here is a logic that everyone must be very clear. The land price of land rises -the price of new houses rose -& gt; developers reasonable profits -& gt; strengthen the ability to buy high -priced land.According to this operating cycle, this cycle will gradually be explicitized in the future, but this explicitity is not reflected in the entire market, but focuses on core cities and high -quality areas.
instead of core cities, I am afraid it will only become deserted and deserted.
The focus of competition in the real estate market in the future has shifted from the competition of house prices to the land price competition.
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Earth price competition is essentially competition between housing companies.
In this round of soil auction in Shanghai, 5 plots, 4 land caps, 1 plot premium is 5.56%of the transactions, and there is no base price.Xiangyu, China Railway Construction and China Trade Unite, Huafa and China Railway Real Estate, the eighth bureaus of China Construction, and Yuexiu Real Estate won a land.
Everyone knows that the names of these land acquisition companies will know that this round of land transfer is mainly state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises. Only Dahua has participated in private enterprises and did not get land. This round of 5The Zonglong plot was taken by state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises.
I have analyzed with you before that the current model of concentrated land shooting has become higher and higher, so who has such strong capital strength?
From the results, dare to get the land?Basically dare not.
But state -owned enterprises and central enterprises have strong combat power, they dare to take it.
After canceling the upper limit of the land price, the high premium land in Hangzhou, Chengdu, etc., and the amount of land acquisition of state and state -owned enterprises accounted for 63.0%.
Data, from January to October 2024, the cumulative land acquisition amount of 22 cities accounted for 47%, and local state-owned assets accounted for 29%, totaling 76%.
The amount of land acquisition of a small number of cities accounted for a high proportion of land acquisition. For example, local private enterprises such as Hangzhou Binjiang and Jianhang continued to obtain land, and 5 of the top ten companies in the land acquisition were private enterprises.
Whether from the perspective of funds or from the perspective of state -owned enterprises and private enterprises, the phenomenon of strong strong strong strong in the previous round of large shuffles has become more and more obvious.
The market will have soil auctions in many key cities next. From the perspective of Beishangguang, Shenzhen -Shenzhen -Hangzhou, it will definitely push market emotions to a climax in the short term.
Now the land price has risen so much, everyone knows what this housing price means in the future.
In the long run, soil auction is the vane of the property market, and it is also an indispensable part in the property market.
Behind the numbers, the national land shooting market is breaking through the predicament, ice and fire, and further premium in the core cities.
At present, although the transaction area and transaction amount of the land market are generally declined, the structural differentiation is visible to the naked eye, and the effect of funds focusing on core cities is accelerating.
The wheel of history is entering a turning period, rising and declining, changing, tide and tide, everything is following some kind of unchanged laws.
And you, and I should always do it!
