Many chiefs, the latest voice!

[Introduction] CITIC Securities holds the 2025 capital market annual meeting

China Fund Reporter Yan Jing 滢

CITIC Securities, the heavy point of view is here!

On November 12, CITIC Securities opened in Shenzhen 2025 in Shenzhen., A -share market investment strategy, large -scale asset allocation, and the development trends of various economic fields under the new pattern of capital markets have made a comprehensive prospects.

It is reported that CITIC Securities 2025 capital market annual meeting was three days.Listed companies attended the meeting.After visiting the card, the Fund Jun found that the meeting was full, and even a large number of audiences stopped at the screen outside the venue.At noon on the first day of the conference, there were more than 3,600 people at the scene.

At the meeting, the CITIC Securities Research Department launched the 2025 economic outlook and investment strategy series, including domestic and foreign macro and policy outlook, A -share and overseas market investment strategies, FICC, major industriesInvestment strategy, etc.CITIC Securities believes that looking forward to 2025, A shares are currently standing on the starting line of the annual marathon market.

Look at the details-

Mingming: Support policy successively

Drive further economic recovery next year

At the main forum on November 12, CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly surrounds "recovery and fluctuations"The theme of the global financial market and large -scale assets in 2025.It is clearly believed that support policies in the fields of currency, fiscal, real estate and other fields have been introduced one after another. Among them, the regulating role of fiscal counter -cyclical regulation is expected to further increase, driving further economic recovery next year.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist Mingming

From the perspective, it is clear that the period of rapid growth may be growing at the beginning of next year.It is expected that from the second quarter, under the disturbance of high bases and US tariff policies, foreign demand will face a certain pressure of weakening.In the second half of next year, the increasing increase policy is expected to be introduced further, driving the second rebound of the economy at the end of the year.

In terms of fiscal policy, it is clearly stated that considering the expectations of local debt replacement in 2025, supplementing bank capital, supporting real estate, and expanding domestic demand, it is expected to have a fiscal deficit of 2025.The scale of the governments new special debt has been increased to about 4 trillion yuan. At the same time, the debt limit is increased to replace the hidden debt of local governments, increase the issuance of "two new and two" and supplementary bank capital for the issuance of long -term special government bonds.

Obviously pointing out that at the same time of financial expansion, monetary policy will be coordinated, and the liquidity of tools such as surrender, buying and selling national bonds, and buying out of reverse repurchase will ensure that government bonds are issued smoothly.In the context of the exchange rate, the exchange rate may balance the moderate internal and external interest rate cuts, and at the same time further improve the monetary policy framework, especially the interest rate regulation function, policy interest rates, LPR, and deposit interest rates have been lowered.The wide currency cycle is expected to continue, and it is expected that there will still be two reductions and two interest rate cuts in 2025.

For the configuration of large -scale assets in 2025, it is clearly outlook that the A -share market risk preference is systematically recovered, the market or phase interpretation; the bond market may still be in the smooth environment, butThe investment paradigm of the bond market in 2025 may also change significantly.Maintaining a lot of views on gold prices, the Fed and the Global Bank are still in the process of interest rate cuts, and the expansion of US finance is also conducive to further increase in gold prices.At the overseas level, the US dollar index may be strong and weaker, and the short -term performance of US debt is better than long -term. The continuous interest rate cut of the Fed and Trumps policy care for domestic enterprises may promote US stocks to continue to rise in 2025.

Yang Fan: Resolving risks, fiscal expansion, reform deepening "three steps"

PromotingChinas economy has achieved stability and recovery and structural optimization

Yang Fan, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Macro and Policy, said that starting from the end of September, a series of combination boxing adopted by the government marks policy policies.Obvious turning.The core ideas of "lighting into the battle, moving forward" or a new round of policy, through the "three steps" of resolving risks, fiscal expansion, and deepening reforms, promote Chinas economy to achieve stability and structural optimization, and significantly improve social expectations.

Yang Fan, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Macro and Policy, Yang Fan

Yang Fan expects that the governments deficit rate will rise significantly in 2025 to 4%, comprehensively using a variety of financial and monetary policy tools to increase support for the real economy.In terms of investment, it will enhance the support for stabilizing peoples livelihood and promoting consumption, improve the expectations of residents income, stimulate consumption potential, drive effective investment, and expand domestic demand.

Looking forward to 2025, Yang Fan believes that the main risks of macroeconomics come from the drag on exports of restricted policies such as potential tariffs on overseas markets.In neutral scenes, assuming the additional tariffs began to land from the second quarter of 2025, and to 60%at the end of the year, it is estimated that the GDP growth will drag nearly 1 percentage point.However, there are sufficient response measures in China, and it is expected that it will be dragged on the economy through expansion of financial and monetary policies to hedge overseas risks.

In addition, Yang Fan mentioned that it still needs to pay attention to the markets prosperity. Since last year, the economic presentation of imbalance in supply and demand has been benefited from the influence of policies and fundamentals.At the demand side, the incremental contribution to the short -term economy is more significant.As the subsequent incremental policy continues to land, both industrial and service industries will be recovered. The production end will contribute to GDP greatly, and it will still be the structural characteristics of the economy next year.Taken together, it is expected that the economy will show "U" growth in 2025, and the annual growth rate is expected to remain at about 5%.

Qin Peijing: A shares are currently standing

The starting line of the annual marathon market