Zhitong Finance APP learned that released a research report stating that the holiday policy landed and met expectations.After the revised holiday arrangements meet the expectations, the statutory holidays are significantly extended, the local consumption time increases, and the possibility of the use of long holidays with annual holidays is good for local consumption: supermarkets, department stores, and catering, as well as good outbound travel agencies.Essence
Incident: The State Council recently decided to make the "National New Year and Memorial Day Holiday Measures" as follows: 1) The statutory holidays have increased by two days, which are New Years Eve, respectively, New Years Eve, respectively.And May 2nd.2) It can be reasonably arranged to uniformly set off leave and rest, combined with the implementation of the annual vacation system and other systems, in fact, a long vacation is formed.The statutory holidays do not exceed 6 days before and after holidays.
Guotai Junans main point of view is as follows:
The statutory holiday is extended, and local consumption time increases.
Comparison of 24 -year and 25 -year holiday arrangements:
2024 holidayArrangement: 3 days of New Years Day+8 days of the Spring Festival+3 days of Qingming+5 days of Labor Day+Dragon Boat Festival 3 days+3 days of Mid -Autumn Festival+National Day 7 days; statutory holiday days: 11 days; can be connected into small long holidays;Number of days: 32 days (not calculated for 1 day alone).
2025 holiday arrangement: 1 day of New Years Day+8 days of the Spring Festival+3 days of Qingming+5 days of Labor Day+Dragon Boat Festival 3 days+National Day/Mid -Autumn Festival 8 days; Legal holiday days: 13 days; can be connected into small long holiday days: 27 days.
① The number of legal vacations days increases by two days, which is more favorable for local consumption.② According to the latest holiday arrangements, the number of days that can actually be connected into small holidays in 2025 is 27 days, and in 2024 for 32 days. The main differences come from the New Years Day and the National Day Mid -Autumn Festival.③ The increase in the addition of the Spring Festival and May Day can be consistent with the number of days in the fake period (8 days of the Spring Festival, 5 Days of May 1st).④ Therefore, if you only consider the statutory vacation time, you will have more catalysis on local consumption, and it will benefit from catering, retail, department stores, and jewelry.
But if you consider personal annual leave, you can form more long holiday windows.
In the "Measures", it is encouraged to make full use of paid vacation and annual leave systems to form a long vacation.This article analyzes the situation of the long holiday through the annual leave:
24 -year annual leave can achieve ultra -long holidays: Qingming: Legal 3+ annual leave 1 = 4 days; May 1: Weekend 2+ annual leave 2+ statutory 5 days = 9 days; Mid -Autumn Festival: annual leave 4+ statutory 3+ weekends 2 = 9 days.
25 annual leave can achieve ultra -long holidays: New Year3 days of annual vacation+2 = 13 days on weekends; May 1st: 2+ annual vacations on weekends+May 1 5 days = 10 days; 11: legal 8 days+annual vacation 2 days+weekend 2 days = 12 days.
① The new version of the "Measures" considers the use of annual leave, which has increased significantly compared to the 24 -year -old super long holiday, which constitutes potential benefits for long -term tourism and outbound tourism demand.② The actual landing situation still requires the annual leave and paid leave of specific enterprises and individuals.
Risk Tips: Extreme weather risk affects tourism demand; macroeconomic fluctuations affect consumer capacity; changes in tourism demand constitute a diversion of some destinations and travel methods.
