Lao Week Abstract: Recently, the Wall Street Journal disclosed the peace plan proposed by Trump, which has just won the election, and the basic content and the previous TrumpIt is roughly the same, it should be said that the credibility is still very high.So what impact will this peace plan affect the follow -up direction of the Russian and Ukraine?
Recently, the American "Wall Street Journal" disclosed that Trump, who has just won the election, proposed to the Russia and Ukraine War.The basic content, the basic content is roughly the same as what Trump said before, it should be said that the credibility is still very high.So what impact will this peace plan affect the follow -up direction of the Russian and Ukraine? According to the news of the Wall Street Journal, the basic content of this peace plan includes: First stop the fire, set up a non -military zone L according to the actual contact line of the two parties;Participation, the United States does not participate) is responsible for the patrol of the non -military region; the Ukrainian territory that has been occupied is not considered (this is equivalent to actual ceasefire lines as the new national boundary); secondly, Ukraine has not joined NATO for 20 years. As an exchange condition, the United States promises to ensure the safety of Ukraines new land and will continue to armed Ukraine, so that Ukraine has the military forces to defend the land. If Ukraine does not accept it, the United States will "take the corresponding action".As for what "corresponding action", the outside world generally believes that it is to stop assisting Ukraine. Seeing such a peaceful plan, Lao Zhous first reaction was to think of the "Munich Agreement" in 1938. At that time, British Prime Minister Chamberlain sacrificed the national interests of the Czech Republic, in exchange for the so -called "generation of peaceful peace."" ".When Chamberlain returned to Britain, he held the Munich Agreement in his hand and was enthusiastically cheered by tens of millions of people.But what happened later?History has proven, and it is useless to repeat it.Today, Trumps peace plan is exactly the same in nature, which is naked appeasementism.
Although this peace plan has not been officially recognized by the Trump team, it has been from TrumpWith his campaign partner Wans repeatedly expressed the end of the Russian and Ukraine War during the campaign, the proposed plan was similar to this peace plan, so the credibility of this peace plan should be very high.The Wall Street Journal also revealed that Trump will send special envoys to communicate with Russia and Ukraine to strive to reach this peace plan before he officially appointed US President in January next year. So, what is the reaction in all aspects? First of all, the Russian President Putin was a sense of atmospheric. After the Trumps victory, the first speech said, "The new century order is formed. Elections in the United States and European countries have shown that the people have awakened. The world needs Russia.Politicians tried to destroy Russia and cut off Russias attempts to lose their traffickers with world politics and economic connections. On November 7, the Russian stock market rose 3.6%, which was the first time in the Russian -Ukraine War in more than two years.The entire economy is filled with an optimistic atmosphere. The capital market also believes that after Trump takes office, it will end economic sanctions against Russia. Therefore, the economic downturn economy is now a "investment depression" that can get high returns.
The situation on the battlefield also echoed this peace plan.A violent offensive, occupying about 500 square kilometers, but also paid a heavy price.According to the estimation of the British Ministry of Defense, the Russian military casualties exceeded 50,000 in October, which is the record with the highest monthly casualties since the outbreak of the war.It is obviously to occupy more territories at the expense of the cost, because according to this peace plan, the ceasefire line will be the new national boundary. For Ukraine, the situation is very severe.Accepting such a peaceful plan is tantamount to knee surrender.Judging from the performance since the outbreak of the war, this is simply impossible.If he signs such a peace agreement, then political life is completely ended.Anyone will be the eternal sinner of Ukraine on the peace agreement.Because according to the actual contact line ceasefire, it not only lost the four Wudong states, but also included some areas of Hermatong and Zapolo, which is equivalent to trying about 20%of the territory. If this peace plan is rejected, the United States may terminate assistance.Losing US aid is extremely serious for Ukraine.The current situation in Europe is a scattered sand, not to mention that parent -Russian countries like Hungary have repeatedly restricted in the European Union and NATO voting.(President Macrons Fuxing Party occupied only 163 seats in Congress, the entire left -wing alliance accounted for 182 seats, while the opposition right -wing -right alliance has 212 seats), Germany paralyzed (the ruling three party alliance has just announced disintegration),It is difficult to twist into a rope to support Ukraine. Without strong foreign aid, Ukraine is going to fight Russia alone, and the difficulties are huge.Not only is the national strength difference, but the morale of the people will also be severely hit.Continue to fight, the situation will undoubtedly be very difficult.
If you do not accept the surrender, then continue to resist with the power of Ukraine, there is almost no chance.The only choice is+ -reintegrate nuclear weapons.During the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the nuclear weapons owned by Ukraine were second only to the world in Russia and the United States. Therefore, Ukraine has a nuclear weapon foundation, and Ukraine also has raw uranium ore developing nuclear weapons in Ukraine. There is no problem with the development of nuclear weapons.Not long ago, Zelei once hinted that Ukraine has the idea of re -considering the development of nuclear weapons. Now it seems that it is not groundless. The European Unions severe situation in the face of the United States to stop assisting Ukraine is also stressful.The EU leaders held in Budapest, Hungarian on November 8th, an informal meeting of the EU leaders, and the atmosphere was very dignified. Some reporters even called it "it was like a funeral."Although the EU has some preparations in advance, passed the total amount of more than 50 billion euros in the Ukrainian plan in 2025, the United States stopped assisting in assistance and all pressures must fall to the EU shoulder.Get up.It is almost impossible to fill the gap between the United States to stop assisting assistance.The United States can be drawn, but this war occurs in Europe, and Europe cannot be avoided.
The only variable is Germany, the "red and green light" three-party joint government governed by Germany on November 6Due to the serious differences in the Social Democratic Party where the Liberal Democratic Party and the German Prime Minister, the Social Party of the Social Party where the Democratic Party, announced the withdrawal from the United Government, which led to disintegrate the three parties.In this way, the current government will be trusted to vote on the current government on January 15 next year. If it cannot be passed, the election must be held in advance.With the withdrawal of the Liberal Democratic Party, the rest of the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party were only 28%added together in the parliamentary seats.If the advance election is held, the two largest opposition party and right -wing optional parties will be held. The latest public opinion surveys will reach 34%and 18%, respectively, crushing the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party.Therefore, the result of the election is likely to be organized by the CDU -headed government. Then, the party leader of the CDU Fedrich Mitz may probably become the German Prime Minister and Merz as a tough eagle.It has always been firmly supporting Ukraine, and he advocates to increase assistance to Ukraine and provide advanced weapons, including the "Taurus" cruise missiles with a range of 500 kilometers.If Merz is elected by the German Prime Minister, it may lead the European Union to continue to support Ukraine.After all, Germany is the "engine" and "leader" of Europe, which has great appeal and influence.
In addition, Trump will not officially take office until mid-January next year, so in the next twoFor a month, the current Bayeng government will also seize the final window period to maximize the help of Ukraine.The first is to lift Ukraines use of long -range weapons to combat Russias local targets. Before the US Secretary of Defense, Austin said that if North Korea sent troops to support Russia, the United States will terminate the Ukrainian long -range weapon ban, and now the election has been settled, the Democratic Party will be settled.The government no longer has any scruples, and there is no obstacle to lifting the ban.In terms of specific assistance, the United States has announced that it will provide Ukraine with a total value of US $ 9 billion in military assistance before Bayeng stepped down.This may be the last assistance, but anyway, it can help Ukraine to support it for a while. In the end, Lao Zhou always believed that the Russian and Ukraine War was by no means two Russia and Ukraine, and it will far affect Europe and the world.Therefore, Trumps peace plan cannot be limited to Russia and Ukraine.The vision is more liberalized. Trumps peace plan is so good for Russia, which is equivalent to helping Putin successfully solve the set from the quagmire of the war. Is it just Trump and Putins personal relationship very close?Is it because "the United States first", no longer cares about Europe?Obviously not that simple.Why did Trump do this?
Lao Zhou couldnt help but think of another Republican President Nixon in American history. He broke China and the United States.The steadfolding between the between China restores normal diplomatic relations with China.Nixon is not how friendly to China, but is -Lianzhong Anti -Soviet.Today, Trumps termination of assistance in Ukraine is the same strategy as Nixon, but it has changed from "Lianzhong Anti -Soviet" to "United Russia Anti -China", because Teku is always a hardliner to China, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States.The trade war began during the last term of Trump.In Trumps heart, there is no doubt that the East country is the number one enemy. Termination of custody, not only can the resources originally used in Ukraine, including financial resources, and weapons and equipment, can be used to the Asia -Pacific region, but also given Putin a great human sentiment as an exchange condition for exchange conditions.In exchange for Russia to deal with Eastern powers together.If you are Putin, would you agree? Therefore, Trumps peace plan will not only have a huge impact on the global political pattern on the Russian and Ukraine War. (pictures of this article are from the Internet)
