Wen | Kaifeng
Population is related to the future.
More and more people realize that the population is not a burden but resources. It is both productive forces, but also consumers and innovation.
Compared with the total population, more importantly, Population Structure .
The trend of the birth population, how much the elderly population, the proportion of young people, the direction of population flow, determine the future of economic growth, regional competition, robbing wars and sustainable development.
Which places have the most population?Which places are still growing?
01
"China Statistical Yearbook 2024" recentdata.
Last year, the national average birth rate was 6.39 ‰.There are only 15 birth rates to win the country, and only 3 provinces are higher than 10 ‰.
On the whole, the birth rate of birth rates in the western region is higher than that of the eastern region, and inland areas are generally higher than coastal areas.Developed areas.
Among them, 5 provinces with the highest birth rate are Tibet, Guizhou, Ningxia, Hainan, Qinghai.
Among them, Tibet ranks first in the country with a birth rate of 13.72 ‰.
These provinces, except Hainan, are located in the underdeveloped areas in the west. They are multi -ethnic settlement provinces. They have always been the highest birth rate.
It is worth mentioning that in the TOP10 economic province, Only Guangdong Province is ranked among the top ten in the country, thus in the population level and the Yangtze River Delta regionThere are substantial differences.
In contrast to it, 5 provinces with the lowest birth rate are Tianjin, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jilin, Heilongjiang, which are concentrated in the northeast and east coast.
Among them, Heilongjiang is low at the bottom of the 2.92 ‰ birth rate.
All three northeast provinces are all listed, which is not surprising.
The aging rate is high, the young population continues to lose, and the relative willingness to fertility is relatively low, which together constitute a multiple crisis of the Northeast population.
Even so, the extremely low birth rate of the 2.92 ‰ of Heilongjiang is still shocking, and it has obviously below Japan and South Korea.
After all, South Korea, where the most serious population crisis is still 4.5 ‰, and Japan is still above 5 ‰.
The population of Heilongjiang Province has more than 30 million people in the province, while the population was only 90,000 last year, but the death population was as many as 200,000.The provincial population has shrunk.
Whats more surprising is that Shanghai, Tianjin in the east are all in the column, and Jiangsu is also in the countdown ,This is the most developed place.
This also shows that the population problem is no longer limited to the Northeast, and even the most developed Yangtze River Delta has signs of "Northeastization".
02
Born for the national child, who is the main force of the biggest contribution?
The birth rate of birth rate can only reflect the level of fertility in one place, but the total population of different provinces is very different, and its contribution to the national birth population is extremely disparate.
Although the birth rate of Tibet, Ningxia, Qinghai and other places has always remained at a high position, but because the total population is only millions of people, the birth population can contribute tens of thousands of people, and it is difficult to hedge the trend of the broader market.
From the perspectiveProvincial province.
The birth population of Guangdong is 1.03 million, ranking first in the country for 6 consecutive years , accounting for 8.9%nationwideThe permanent population contributed 11.4%of the birth population, which is the "most dare to give birth" province.
In contrast to it, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, which are also the TOP5 population provinces in the country, have less than 700,000 people.
Six or seven years ago, Shandong and Henan once took turns to rotate the position of maternity provinces. At the peak of the birth population, as many as 1.7 million, it is no longer in the past.
It is worth mentioning that the birth population of a province in Guangdong, the sum of the "free shipping district" of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai It can be imagined.
You know, the total population size of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in the Yangtze River Delta is as high as 176 million, which is 1.4 times that of Guangdong, but the total population is less than 900,000.One province.
It is also possible to compare that the birth population of a province in Guangdong, more than 3 times the sum of the three provinces in NortheastLiaoning has a total of about 30%more.
It can be said that the low aging rate+high birth rate allows Guangdong to have an advantage that other provinces and cities do not have: the pension is extremely abundant, enough to subsidize half of China.
In this regard, the largest province of Guangdongs birth population, contributing to the whole country, compared to GDP, industry, and foreign trade, the number one in foreign trade, the number one in foreign trade, and the number one in foreign trade in foreign trade.One is more important.
03
Why is Guangdong "more dare to give birth" than Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai?
Generally speaking, the more developed the economy, the richer the life of life, the higher the degreeThis has been proven.
The disparity between the birth rate of the western provinces and the coastal provinces proves this, and the trend of economic developed regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Jinjin also verified this.
However, Guangdong has become the only exception.
In Guangdong, whether it is Guangfu area or Chaoshan area, the birth rate is generally higher than the national level.Ordinary prefecture -level cities.
One of them, the peacock flys southeast, and Guangdong has a large number of young people , which raises the birth rate to a certain extent and lowered the aging rate.
People go with the industry.Since the reform and opening up, as Guangdong has become the first largest province and industry in the country, a large number of foreign population has continued to influx.
These people are mainly young people.While continuously raising the total population, it also allows Guangdong to maintain a relatively unique population structure.
Therefore, Guangdong is the largest province of birth and the lowest aging rate, and the 10 largest cities in the country, Guangdong, accounted for half of the mountains.
The second, Shantou and other places are at the forefront, thanks to a strong fertility culture.
China originally had the traditional concept of "multi -child and blessing". Shandong was known for its fertility culture.The impact was seventy -eight.
Why can the Chaoshan area be maintained to this day?
From the historical perspective, the analysis of the paper published by the Journal of Shantou University is that Chaoshan is located at the end of the country and the ends of the country, and there are a large number of exiles. Therefore, people in order to compete for survivalThe space establishes a clan community with a blood relationship as the bond to jointly resist foreign enemies.
Under the influence of this clan culture, Chaoshan people attach great importance to the inheritance of the children. In order to grow the growth of the family and their families, the "multi -child and more blessing", "life"The childbirth concept of childbirth "has continued to this day.
Third, in history, the implementation of fertility policy implementation directly affects the fertility pattern of the next decades.
The policy of more than 20 years ago was enough to affect the fertility pattern of more than 20 years. One manifestation was that the childcare population in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was far lower than Guangdong.
It once lasted for decades of restricted fertility policies, which had different influence on different provinces.The northeast of state -owned enterprises is the strictest, while Jiangsu has many "model counties" .
In contrast to it, the Chaoshan area uses a relatively complete Tongshe Tradition to form a certain self -protection mechanism in a special historical period to provide fertility policy withThere are certain elasticity and buffer space.
In the face of the impact of the new concept, the Chaoshan area can also retain the traditional fertility culture as much as possible in the traditional square inch, thus becoming one of the most loved children.
Even so, the birth population in Guangdong has also declined significantly compared to the peak period, which needs to be paid attention to.
Encouraging fertility, only one Guangdong is not enough.
04
What impact will the provincial and municipal economy be on the bureau of the birth population?
The population growth in one place rely on natural growth, on the other hand, mechanical growth, that is, the changes brought about by population inflows.
In the past, almost all provinces can maintain positive growth. It is due to the contribution of natural growth. However"Robbing people".
In other words, the population market is topped, and the population competition has become a "zero -sum game". Most provinces must face the dilemma of negative growth.
Some areas with high birth rates, relying on natural growth, can also hedge the impact of population outflow. This is the case for Tibet, Ningxia, Guizhou, Hainan and other places.
In contrast, the Northeast facing the dual loss dilemma has been shrinking for more than ten years, and the most prominent is Heilongjiang.
During the peak period, Heilongjiangs permanent population reached 38.33 million, and now it has fallen to 30.62 million, a decrease of nearly 30%.
and the developed Eastern Region , which is developed in economics and industry, can use the flow of population to flow in, hedge
