Netease Finance November 12th The Shanghai Index opened 0.01%to 3469.89 points, the Shenzhen Index rose 0.37%, at 11430.22 points, the GEM index rose 0.99%, the GEM index rose 0.99%, the GEM index rose 0.99%,At 2416.21 points, the 50 index of science and technology innovation fell 0.3%to 1070.64 points.
The chip industry chain remains hot, the new energy performance is not bad, and the lithium ore and power battery sector increased;The sector index fell the top.
Institutional views
CITIC Securities: A shares are currently standing on the starting line of the annual marathon market
CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that looking forward to 2025, A shares are currently standing on the starting line of the annual marathon market.The credit cycle, macro price, and A -share profit will usher in a new starting point for the cycle. A -share investment and financing ecology, investor ecology, and product ecology have also stood up to a new starting point; personal investors and institutional investors funds relayAdmission will be the main driver of the market. ETF will become an important configuration tool. The market style leading will be gradually switched to institutional investors by individual investors. In the marathon market, the growth of excellent performance, domestic demand consumption, and mergers and acquisitions will become three important tracks.Essence
Everbright Securities: The market is expected to continue the trend of shocks, in the direction of domestic alternatives, autonomous controlling
The good news of 10 trillion yuan,Promote the continuation of A shares.Structurally, the news of the "TSMCs Breakout" was fermented, which stimulated the rising technology stocks headed by chip semiconductor, which led to the popularity of the entire market.
The recent favorable policies, follow -up policies are good, and at the same time, there is a high popularity in the field. Next, the market is expected to continue the trend of shocks.Direction: Domestic replacement, autonomous and controllable.After Trump won the US election in 2024, the expectations of the "scientific and technological warfare" were significantly heating up, superimposed on some recent small actions, the expected domestic alternative and controlling expectations of science and technology -related fields have been greatly improved, and the market outlook may be repeatedly active.
CITIC Construction Investment: The three -point change of the data in October, Pan Gongshengs report on the overall expression is conducive to continuing to boost market emotions and confidence
Yesterday yesterdayThe central bank announced the latest financial data in October. On the whole, the October data changed three positive changes: First, the financing environment of BCI (the operating status index of Chinese enterprises in the Changjiang Business School) improved; second, residents credit improved; third, the M1 growth rateStop falling.What remains to be improved is that the financing needs of the enterprise department and the medium and long -term loans of the enterprise are still in a weak state, and it still needs to be gradually improved in the future.
On the news surface today, the central bank governor Pan Gongsheng made the "State Councils Report on Financial Work".Early, small, investment long -term, and hard technology to meet the financing needs of different life cycle stages of technology -based enterprises; the second is to mention "improving policy tools such as the response to the stock market abnormal fluctuations and maintaining the steady and healthy operation of the financial market".The market has some expectations for the Pingzhong Fund; the third is to promote the coordination of the stock market investment and financing functions, and broaden the domestic capital market channels for overseas investors.The overall expression of the report is conducive to continuing to boost market emotions and confidence.
In terms of market trend, due to the liquidity and investor risk appetite of the main trading denominator of the short -term market, the growth style with greater elasticity is obviously better.The market is in the short -term performance and policy empty window period. Therefore, the direction of chip semiconductors led by autonomous controllable and controllable performance is strong all day. At the same time, it drives AI concepts and new energy growth directions. Blue chip stocks such as banks, coal and consumer goods are relatively weak.However, the recent regulatory signals of high -bid stocks have gradually emerged, and it is necessary to pay attention to fluctuation risks.
In the performance of the market outlook, we believe that the core logic of the current market is still the expected economic repair expectations under policy -driven. This is the basis for the long -term quotation.In the short-term perspective, before the economic data is not reflected, the market is still dominated by overall shocks, but there will be a lower limit of the vibration. The 3100-3200 area will be an important support. The overall strong shock pattern can still maintain the gradually shift of the price center.
Tianfeng Securities: Xinchuang 2.0 is expected to accelerate the localization rate of the trail still increased room
Tianfeng Securities said, detailedSinking+focusing category+special funds, Xinchuang 2.0 is expected to accelerate.From the perspective of Xinchuangs recovery, the party and government/industry Xinchuang is expected to accelerate: the party and government Xinchuang at or above the municipal level started in 2020, ended in 2022, and began to enter the district and county sinking+industry expansion in 2023.And the replacement path has moved from "critical links, part of the market" to "entire industry chain and industry", and gradually gradually deepened to the internal core system.Considering the "settlement" phase of the Capital Mission to enter the countdown, 2024H2 special funds overlay fiscal funds and informatization funds, refine the sinking+focusing on the category trend, and party and government departments at all levels have begun to accelerate.
According to Cedai Consultant, the PC ownership in the field of party and government is nearly 30 million units. As of the beginning of 23 years, only about 7 million PCs have been replaced in the past few years.Another 3.6 million units, the remaining nearly 20 million PC replacement space.Judging from the degree of localization of the Xinchuang Industrial Chain, the fields of application software and IT security are relatively mature, but there is still much room for improvement in chips, operating systems, and databases (as of 2021).
