Original Title: [Huatai Macro] New Social Rong is lower than expected but there is a highlight-October Social Rong Data Review
Source: Huatai Securities Macro StudiesCore viewpoint
Data Quick Comment: In October, the new social integration was lower than expected, mainly because the enterprises medium and long -term loan and bill financing were less than expected, and residential loans increased year -on -year, showing that the real estate cycle was pairingThe dragging on the demand for financing of the real economy declined; the growth rate of M1 rose, showing that the status of corporate cash flow no longer continued to deteriorate, and the year -on -year growth rate of M2 rose, and some of the fiscal policies were pushed. Simple calculations show that in September, M1, M2, and social finance balance deviated from the trend of 8.8%, 3.3%, and 1.8%, respectively.The degree of deviation was slightly widening compared to 2.5%and 1.2%in September, respectively, showing that the impact of "squeezing water" of financial "squeezing water" has faded.In October, M1 narrowed from 7.4%in September to 6.1%(Bloomberg unanimously expected -7.2%), which may be mainly due to the improvement of the marginal improvement of residential house purchase demand and the development of fiscal policy.In October, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 rose to 7.5%from 6.8%in September, higher than 7%of Bloombergs unanimous expectations. It was mainly promoted by the year -on -year year -on -year increase and non -silver deposits.
In terms of social finance, in October, the new RMB loan was 500 billion yuan.100 million yuan, an increase of 448.3 billion yuan year -on -year, slightly lower than the 1.52 trillion yuan of Bloombergs unanimous expectations.As a result, the year -on -year growth rate of social finances fell slightly from 8%in September to 7.8%, but the monthly folding annual growth rate of the monthly folding year after the quarter increased slightly to 8.5%from 8.4%in September.From the perspective of social finance points, in October, government bond issuance and the net financing contribution of the bill contributed 80 % of the new social finance, and the total of two year -on -year increased by 662.4 billion yuan.The total sub -items other than bill financing increased by 214.1 billion yuan year -on -year. At the same time, in October, the new social financing except government bonds in October was the first year -on -year increase in the year -on -year increase, showing that the sectors that were more serious to the real economy dragged on the real economy were more serious.Endogerament of spontaneous financing demand (Figure 2).In addition, in October, the weighted average interest rate/personal housing loan interest rate fell to 3.5%/3.15%in October.
Analysis conclusion: Whether social merit in the short term can stabilize and recover, which may mainly depend on whether fiscal policy can continue to continue to work hard to turn debt to debtAfter the plan is implemented, whether the government debt issuance can be accelerated again, and whether the real estate cycle can continue to stabilize. In October, fiscal deposits increased significantly year -on -year, showing that fiscal policy further made efforts.At the same time, after the M1 quarterly, the growth rate rolled up after the M1 quarterly, showing that the status of corporate cash flow no longer worsen.In addition, in October, residential loans increased more than the year -on -year, showing that the real estate cycle dragged down the credit cycle.Looking forward, as the debt plan landed, the net special bond issuance was expected to accelerate again during the year.If the finance continues to make efforts and the real estate cycle continues to stabilize, the year -on -year growth rate of social finances is expected to stabilize and recover.
Risk reminder: The impact of "squeeze water" exceeds expectations; the stable growth policy is less than expected
The analysis of the specific sub -item data is as follows:
1) M1 has narrowed the year -on -year decline, showing that the impact of the financial "squeezing water" has faded, and corporate cash flow will no longer deteriorate. October M1 narrowed from 7.4%in September to 6.1%(Bloomberg unanimously expected -7.2%), while month-on-month (non-annualization) growth rate from month-on-year (non-annualization) changed from -0.2%in September to 0.2%to Zhengzheng to Zhengzheng to Zhengzheng to Zhengzheng to Zhengzheng reached to September to 0.2%.0.4%, at the same time, the balance deviated from the trend of 8.8%, which was narrowed from 9.3%in September, showing that the impact of the financial "squeezing water" decreased, the marginal improvement of real estate demand, and the fiscal force formed marginal boost on M1.Sustainability is still to be observed (Figure 4).
M2 has increased from 6.8%in September to 7.5%, which is mainly promoted by non -silver deposits and fiscal deposits. Specifically, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 in October went higher to 7.5%from 6.8%in September (Bloomberg was unanimously expected 7%).It also accelerated from 0.9%in September to 1.1%(Figure 6).In October, the balance of renminbi deposits increased by 600 billion yuan from the previous month, an increase of 44.6 billion yuan year -on -year, mainly increased by 573.2 billion yuan from non -silver deposits year -on -year, and fiscal deposits increased significantly by 774.8 billion yuan year -on -year.High, therefore, the M2 balance deviates from 3.3%, and the degree of deviation is slightly widening from 2.5%in September.On the one hand, in October, the A -share transaction amount was close to 1.6 times year -on -year, and the folding wealth management funds returned to the non -silver deposit, which supported the M2 growth rate; on the other hand, the balance of fiscal deposits in October increased by 595.2 billion yuan, which was year -on -year, year -on -year, year -on -yearThe significant increase of 74.8 billion yuan was increased, and the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal deposits fell from 14.9%in September to -1.4%, boosting the year-on-year growth rate of M2 about 0.3 percentage points.
2) In October this year, RMB 500 billion (Bloomberg unanimously expected 710 billion yuan), an increase of 238.4 billion yuan year -on -year. Therefore, the year -on -year growth rate of RMB loans fell from 8.1%in September to 8%.From the perspective of sub -items, the short -term loan balance of the enterprise fell 190 billion yuan month -on -month, an increase of only 13 billion yuan year -on -year, which may reflect the impact of prohibiting hand -made interest rate replenishment.At the same time, the increase in new residential loans in October increased by year -on -year, showing that the real estate cycle dragging down the demand for real economy financing declined, and new corporate loans still increased less year -on -year.Specifically, in October, the short -term loan balance of residents increased by 49 billion yuan month -on -month, an increase of 154.3 billion yuan year -on -year.Co -boosting, in addition, as the bank completes the increase in the interest rate of the stock mortgage by the end of October, the willingness to repay the loan in advance has also eased; in October, the new and long -term loans of enterprises in October were 170 billion yuan, which was 212.8 billion yuan year -on -year.Affected by PPIs decline in the year -on -year, the weaker profitability of the enterprise was influenced.On the other hand, in September, new bills financing was 169.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 148.2 billion yuan, which may reflect the reduction of credit demand marginal improvement and the reduction of banks through bills.
3) In October, the new agency was added to 1.4 trillion yuan (Bloomberg unanimously expected 1.52 trillion yuan), an increase of 448.3 billion yuan year -on -year. From the point of view other than the loan, the government bonds issued 1.05 trillion yuan in October, an increase of 514.2 billion yuan year -on -year, mainly due to the high base of the same period last year.Can it rise again.On the other hand, in September, the balance of corporate debt financing increased by 101.5 billion yuan month -on -month, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan year -on -year, which may still be affected by the adjustment of the credit bond market.In addition, in October, the total balance of "non -bid" assets, including trust loans, commissioned loans, and banks without the existing exchange bill, decreased by 144.3 billion yuan month -on -month, less than 112.9 billion yuan year -on -year.Protocol, it may also reflect the decline in the scale of bank bills.
Risk reminder: The impact of "squeezing water" exceeds expectations; the stable growth policy is less than expected.
Article Source
This article is excerpted from "New Society Rongxian Rong is lower than the new social integration released on November 11, 2024 than lower thanExpected but Highlights "
Researcher Chang Huili PHDSAC No. S0570520110002 | SFC BJC906
Easy Researcher SAC No. S0570520100005 | SFC AMH263
Wang Yishuo contact PHD SAC No. S0570123070085 | sfc bup051
Author: Chang Hui Liyi
