Reporter Tan Zhijuan reported by our newspaper
Recently, the Peoples Bank of China released the "Implementation Report of China Monetary Policy in the third quarter of 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), Proposed that "rationally recovering prices as an important consideration for grasping monetary policy and promoting prices at a reasonable level."
"Price" has become an important keyword in the Report.Experts interviewed by the industry believe that the central banks attention to price indicators has repeatedly mentioned that stable prices are considered as an important policy consideration. It is expected that the level of inflation in the third quarter will rise moderately. In the future, monetary policy will remain relatively loose, and the interest rate reduction will also be expected.
Price recovery is important considerations
In the second quarter central banks monetary policy implementation report, "Maintaining price stability, stable price,Compared with the statement of promoting a moderate rise ", this report has more" prices "ink, which has aroused greater attention in the market.
Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the China Business Daily that the price level is closely related to the total demand, and the increase in price levels can bring the total demand to the total demand.Vibration, the level of price itself is also one of the goals of monetary policy."Considering that the current price level is still low, it is necessary to continue to use it as an important consideration of monetary policy in the future."
Since the beginning of this year, macro policy adverse cycle adjustment has increased, economic recovery and developmentThe total demand continued to improve, and the level of prices rose moderately. In the first three quarters, CPI rose 0.3%year -on -year, of which 0.5%in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, it has also gradually entered the consumption season. The "Double Twelve" shopping festival is approaching, and factors such as the Spring Festival preparation have become obvious consumption points.In addition, after the launch of a recent performance of an incremental increase in performance, the role of effective demand and macroeconomic driving has gradually emerged.
The Report believes that CPI is expected to continue the moderate backward trend during the year, and the decline in PPI will be narrowed overall.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in October, CPI rose 0.3%year -on -year, which was 0.1 percentage points slowed down from last month.Feng Lin, executive director of the Department of Research and Development of Dongfang Jincheng, told reporters that this was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices.
However, the core CPI that eliminated food and energy prices in that month was still weaker than seasonal, rebounding to 0.2%year -on -year, and continued to be in a low range of below 1.0%.This means that the weakening of price increases since the beginning of 2023 is still continuing.Feng Lin expects that the base number will be driven sharply, and the CPI will rise in November in November, and it is expected to rise by about 0.6%.
In the middle and long term, my countrys economic transformation and industrial upgrading have steadily advanced. The economic supply and demand relationship is expected to be more balanced, the currency conditions are reasonable and moderate, the residents are expected to be stable, and the price is basically stable and a solid foundation.
The industry believes that the current inflation level is in the early stage of a gentle recovery, and it is expected that there is still a loose space such as reduction in the amount of standards and interest rate cuts.
Further improve the monetary policy framework
The reporter noted that the "Report" also specifically mentioned "Further improve the framework of monetary policy. "
With the further development of direct financing, the financial market participation subject, product type, and conduction chain are more complicated, the difficulty of directly regulating monetary policy regulation has continued to rise, and the transformation of monetary policy framework needs to be transformed.Continue to advance, pay more attention to the role of price regulation.
This "Report" pointed out in column 4 "Direct Financing Development and Monetary Policy Framework Transition" that in the future, we must continue to promote the transformation of monetary policy regulation.
Liang Si told reporters that since this year, the monetary policy framework has changed significantly, quantitative indicators have weakened, price -type regulation is constantly prominent, and the future of interest rate mechanisms in the regulation of monetary policy regulationSex will continue to rise.
It is reported that the quantitative tools mainly include the deposit reserve ratio, open market, re -loan and re -discounting of the regulatory quantity (basic currency);, Exchange rate, etc.
China Post Securities believes that this indicates that indirect financing and economic correlation of credit and economic correlations in my countrys economic structure have weakened. The speed of the negative scissors is too pessimistic.
In Liang Sis view, further improve the monetary policy framework, continuously create conditions, and continuously improve the effectiveness of the interest rate regulation mechanism through improvement of the tool system and target rules.
In orderThe interest rate center runs smoothly. "
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, predicts that the central bank will continue to optimize open market operations, enrich policy toolboxes, and guide the reduction of capital interest rate fluctuations.
(Editor: Wu Jing Review: Du Lijuan School Division: Zhai Jun)
