Huitong Finance News — The US CPI inflation rebounded, but the markets bet on the Federal Reserves interest rate reduction in December did not change.Eurasian Group, and other institutions predict that OPEC+relaxation reduces production, coupled with Trump policy impact needs, oil prices may fall to $ 60 or even 40 US dollars next year.
Huitong Finance APP News —— The following is the financial breakfast on Thursday (November 14), including important news, precious metal/crude oil/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchange/foreign exchangeCommodity/stock market/bond market and other markets, international key news, domestic key news, institutional views, important data of todays financial and economic and financial affairs.The US CPI inflation rebounded, but the betas betting on the Federal Reserves interest rate reduction in December did not change, and the spot gold fell after rising.Eurasia Group, Citi and other institutions predict that OPEC+relaxation reduces production, coupled with the impact of Trumps policy impact, oil prices may fall to $ 60 or even 40 US dollars next year.
List of the global major market conditions 1. precious metal
The US CPI in October increased by 2.6%year -on -year, which rebounded from 2.4%in September. It was the first one after the market expected. It was the first rebound in the US CPI for 6 consecutive months.In terms of monthly, the US CPI rose by 0.2%in October, the market is expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value is 0.2%; the core CPI rose 0.3%, which is the same as the market expectations of 0.3%, with a previous value of 0.3%.The US October CPI meets market expectations in October.$ 2572.93/ounce.Spot silver finally closed down 1.24%to $ 30.34/ounce.
According to CME "Fed Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve from December to maintain the current interest rate is 17.5%, the probability of accumulating interest rates of 25 basis points is 82.5%(the day beforeAbout 65%).
2. Crude oil
On WTI crude oil disk, V -type reversal, and finally close itRat 0.1%to $ 67.91/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.21%to $ 71.76/barrel. Although the short -term promotion is pushing the oil price, the strengthening of the US dollar has limited the increase in oil prices.
Morgan Stanleys oil price prediction, predicting that excess supply may be supplied next year.In the first quarter of 2025, the oil price was $ 72 per barrel, and the previous prediction was $ 77.5.
3. Forex
The US CPI in October was picked up as scheduled.Retoning 0.522%to 106.48, a new high in the year.
On Wednesday, the Australian dollar closed 0.73%against the US dollar to 0.6484.Barclays analysts wrote in a report: "Our research shows that the fiscal easing policy plus tariffs may lead to a significant strengthening of the US dollar against the euro, and the currency such as the Mexican peso.It will be further strengthened.Continuously fell, closed down 0.56%, at 1.0562.The European Central Banks interest rate cuts are expected to continue the euro.French President Villeuva said that French inflation will remain mild, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut more interest rates.
On Wednesday, the US dollar closed up 0.57%against the yen to 155.48.The Japanese government previously stated that it had intervened twice in the foreign exchange market twice in the last quarter. In view of the recent weakness of the Japanese yen, it was speculated that Japan might have taken more measures.
On Wednesday, the pound continued to fall against the US dollar, closing a 0.31%closure to 1.2707.Analyst Justin McQueen said the data will continue to guide the prospects of the Bank of England. The most noteworthy is the British CPI report next week (November 20).In the technical side, the closing price is lower than the 200 -day moving moving average to make the pound easily suffered deeper setbacks. In order to test the summer low 1.2666 and 1.2615, the door opened the door
4. 4.CommodityWednesday LME copper closes 1.5%to US $ 9007.50/ton; LME aluminum closes 1.44%to $ 2528/ton; LME zinc closes 0.81%up 0.81%At $ 2970.50/ton.
5. The stock market
On Wednesday, A -shares maintain a weak shock in the early morning, and the afternoon is collectively up in the afternoon.The Shanghai Index rose 0.51%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 0.4%, the GEM index rose 1.11%.
The German DAX30 index closed down 0.16%on Wednesday; the British Fishi 100 Index closed up 0.06%; the European Stock 50 index closed down 0.09%.
Wednesday Index closed up 0.1%, the S & P 500 index rose 0.02%, the Nasdaq fell 0.26%
6. Debt.City
On Wednesday, the benchmark 10 -year US debt yield was reported at 4.468%; the two -year US bond yields that were more sensitive to monetary policy closed at 4.294%.
International News ① The Ministry of Energy of Russia recommends the lifting of gasoline exports
② Turkey stops trade with Israel
③ Australian Prime Minister claims to raise fair trade issues in Mandarin
④ Russias export of chemical fertilizer exports to India has reached a record level
⑤ Former Federal Reserve policy maker Mest said on Tuesday that if the global tariff policy of President Trump takes effect, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year less than previous expectations
⑥ Russian officials: Mei Ying may implement actions similar to destroying the "Beixi" pipeline again⑦ Japans gold sales in July to September increased by 20%. /p>
⑧ Deputy Minister of Petroleum Iraq meets the intercontinental oil and gas delegation and discuss the development of oilfields
However, it is difficult to form a cabinet. Election of non -multimeter in advance
Domestic news ① In the first 10 months of this year, the trade amount of other economies of my country and other economies of APEC hit a record high in the same period.
< P ID = "35tri1ve"> ② The State Council Principles agree to the "China (Zhejiang) Free Trade Zone Commodity Resources Construction Plan for the Free Trade Zone"③ Involved in Shandong, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia
④ The transaction fee of related contracts related to aluminum oxide futures in the previous period
1-10 on the year-on-year increase in retail market retail markets
Institutional Summary ① Add Emperor Bank: Inflation report will not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates again in December
② Citi: The price of copper will be reduced to $ 8500-9000 per ton by the end of the year. US dollar
③ Henning Glaystein, Eurasian Group Energy, Climate, and Resource Director, said that considering that the increase in oil demand next year may not exceed 1 million barrels per day. In 2025, OPEC+ fully lifted production reduction " It will undoubtedly lead to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, and it may fall to $ 40 per barrel
④ Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, believes that if OPEC+ will relax and reduce production without considering the needs, This will actually be equivalent to a price war for the market share, which may lead to the lowest point since the price of oil prices falling to the epidemic. After taking office further, the prospect of pessimism is exacerbated. Some people associate his return with potential trade tensions. It is expected that the average price of Brent crude oil next year will reach $ 60 per barrel
⑥ Wells Fargo: Starting in 2025, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates every other meeting next year. /p>
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