Tianfeng Securities recently released Qingdao Beer (600600) in the third quarter of 2024 Report: The Q3 structure has improved slightly, and the expenses drag their profit.
The following is the research report Abstract:
24q1-3 performance: revenue of 28.959 billion yuan, -6.52%year-on-year;100 million yuan, year -on -year+1.67%; deduction of non -net profit was 4.686 billion yuan, a year -on -year+1.96%.
24Q3 performance: revenue of 8.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year-5.28%; net profit attributable to mother is 1.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year-9.03%;Essence
Q3 sales are under pressure; but ASP has narrowed.
Q1-3 sells 6.785 million liters, a year-on-year-7.0%; the main brand is -6.2%year-on-year, and the middle and high-end-4.2%year-on-year (accounting for+1.2pct to 41%).The Q3 volume is -5.1%year-on-year, the main brand is -4.1%year-on-year (proportion+0.6pct), the mid-to-high-end-4.7%year-on-year (ratio+0.2pct), other brands-6.3%year-on-year.
ton income Q1-3 year-on-year+0.5%, Q3 is -0.2%(Q2-0.9%), the decline in the ton income is slightly narrowed, and the structure has been slightly improved.
The cost dividend continues to be fulfilled, and the expenses increase to drag the profit.
Q3 Deducting non-net interest rate year-on-year-0.4pct, where: 1) ton cost-2.2%(H1-3.1%, Q1-1%), the cost improvement but narrowing the amplitude, Year-on-year+1.2PCT; 2) The sales rate is year-on-year+2.4PCT (the sales cost increases 160 million), and the cost of expenses is increased with the popularity of the Olympic event;0.4PCT.
Q1-3 net interest rate year-on-year+1.6PCT, gross profit margin year-on-year+2.0pct (ton cost-2.9%), sales/management rate year-on-year+0.6/-0.1pct.
Looking forward to the future, 23Q4 is affected by video public opinion, sales pressure (-10%) and expenses are large. We expect that 24Q4 sales are expected to stabilize and recover.EssenceThe company has improved its operating quality in 24 years, and used ERP systems to charge the coming year.
Profit forecast: We expect the companys revenue growth rate of 24-26 years will be -5%/2%/3%(amount 322/328/337 billion yuan), andThe profit growth rate was 4%/9%/8%(amount 44/48/5.2 billion yuan), and the corresponding PE was 23X/21x/19X, respectively, and maintained a "buy" rating.
Risk reminder: industry competition is intensified; raw material costs rose too fast; demand and upgrade are lower than expected.(Tianfeng Securities Zhang Xiaoqian, Wu Li, Li Benyuan, He Yuhang)
Disclaimer: The content and data of this article are for reference only, and do not constitute investment suggestions. Please verify before use.Based on this, the risk is on its own.
