It is reported that TSMC has notified Chinese customers to suspend the advanced AI chip produced by 7nm and below process nodes.In addition, Chinese customers who seek advanced process projects in the future will be strictly reviewed to ensure that chips are not used in AI or other restricted purposes.TrendForce believes that if the policy takes effect, it may affect the revenue performance of TSMC and the utilization rate of 7nm and below, and it will also affect the future development of the Chinese AI industry.
This review was performed after 910B chip exposure after the message of TSMC 7nm technology was exposed.This has aroused the charges of peoples concerns about violations of US export regulations, and some companies that may act as intermediaries on behalf of Chinese companies to issue advanced AI chip orders.In response, TSMC is re -evaluating its KYC process and factories to improve its customer approval standards and expand product review standards, and may apply additional restrictions on chip size and HBM.
TrendForce pointed out that TSMC is likely to implement these measures in the short term, but the overall impact will depend on whether the US Department of Commerce issues additional export control regulations or add specific customers to the physical listmiddle.
In the first three quarters of 2024, TSMCs income distribution showed that advanced nodes accounted for 67%of its total income, which is a key source of income.However, TrendForce emphasized that the main customers of TSMC 7/6n, 5/4nm, and 3nm process are mainly from the United States, Europe and Taiwan.Therefore, even if the regulatory operation affects the business, some Chinese customers may lose, and TrendForce expects other customers to make up for this loss, thereby restricting the potential impact of advanced technology utilization.
TSMCs revenue from China in 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024 remained stable, from 11% to 13%.If the regulatory agencys review of TSMCs advanced technology increases, or some Chinese customers are included in the entity list (especially IC design companies, IP providers, third -party design services or other advanced processes of TSMC,In the project startup, streamlined and mass -produced enterprises), TSMCs income may be affected by about 5% to 8%.However, the global strong demand for AI chips and the increase in the price of TSMC plans to advance technology customers are expected to help alleviate part of the impact.
