On February 23, according to the market trend chart, recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has "turned down". From February 22, as of February 23, at 10:48 on February 23, 2On the trading day, a total of 177 points fell, approaching 7.2100 to 7.2063. What is the reason for this?
For this problem, for this problem, for this problem,The editor thinks that recently, the reason for the exchange rate of the offshore RMB has "turned down", which is still approaching 7.2100, which is most likely because the Feds market expected market expectations in the first half of 2024 were weakened.
One, yesterday, the United States announced a series of economic data, and its performance was "good", especially in the United States manufacturing and service industry in FebruaryThe market expectation of the semi -annual rate cut is weakened.
Data show that the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in February in February was 51.5, the expected value was 50.5, and the previous value was 50.7.
From the data point of view, in February, the manufacturing industry in the United States is further "expanding", which may make the price of raw materials be boosted, So that the price of American producers "rose".
In addition, in February, although the U.S. service industry PMI initial value "lower" and market expected value, it is still above the 50 -dry line, which shows that the United States in February in FebruaryThe service industry is still in the "expansion", but it is just "slowing".
Data show that the initial value of the Markit service industry in February in February in the United States was 51.3, the expected value was 52, and the previous value was 52.5.
At the same time, last week, the number of initial unemployment benefits in the United States decreased by 12,000 people from the previous month.Data show that the number of unemployed funds invited by the United States from early February 17 was 201,000, with an expected value of 218,000, and the previous value was 213,000.
Finally, in January, the total number of household sales in the United States increased by 120,000 years from the previous month.Data show that the total sales of the United States in January were 4 million households with a total of 3.97 million households, and the previous value was 3.88 million.
That is to say, yesterday, the economic data released by the United States performed well, making the Federal Reserves market expected market expectations in the first half of 2024 was weakened, which boosted that the US dollar was relative to offshore from offshore.The value of the renminbi.
Second, yesterday, the Fed vice chairman Philip Jefferson said that the interest rate cut at this year may be appropriate, butYou need to be alert to excessive looseness, so as not to achieve the ultimate goal of price stability.
Jefferson said in a speech at the Peterson Institute of International Economics: "We always need to keep in mind the danger of excessive looseness, it may cause the price to restore the stability of the price, or even may even be possibleReverse. "This remark called for comments from the recent Federal Reserve officials and the minutes of the meeting of yesterdays meeting, that is, there is a risk of premature reducing borrowing costs.
In September last year, Jefferson was elected vice chairman of the Fed. As the "second hand" of this largest financial institution in the world, he played a pivotal role in monetary policy.Previously, the US Price Report fluctuated in January, but he still maintained a "cautious and optimistic" attitude towards the prospect of continuing inflation.
Third, the day before yesterday, the January meeting of the Federal Reserves January also weakened the market expectations of the Fed in the first half of the year.On February 21, the Federal Reserve announced the Minutes of the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) from January 30 to January 31st. Participants discussed the economic situation, financial status, and expectations of monetary policy.
From the perspective of perspective, most Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the "early interest rate cut" option. They believe that the risk of this action is significantly higher than the "continuing to maintain interest rates to maintain a high level"" ".This confirms the "Before the inflation rate continues to move towards 2%with greater confidence in the previous meeting statement, it is not advisable to reduce the interest rate target range."
Therefore, the editor feels that recently, the" turn "of the offshore RMB exchange rate is still approaching 7.2100, which is most likely due to the weakening market expectations of the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2024.In this regard, what do you think, is it consistent with the point of view of the editor?
