The data is cold, but it must be objective
Still a lot worse than 19 years, is there a greasy data statistics?In fact, similar complaints have been heard more than once this year.
On the one hand, there are rising tourists and continuously rising tourism consumption on the one side.
According to the statistics of domestic tourism sampling, in the first three quarters of 2024, the number of domestic travelers was 4.237 billion, which was year -on -yearThe increase of 15.3%, the total tourist tourists spent 4.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.9%year -on -year.
On the one hand, it is a reality that is more difficult to travel business.
Financial report shows that in the third quarter of this year, 21 A -share tourist listed companies have varying degrees of performance.Fall, more than 60 % of operating income declined, and nearly 80 % of the profit decline.
(Data source: official website financial report, iFind)
01
The current status of splitting makes many tourism practitioners doubt at one time: Isnt that I work hard enough?Who has the wealthy wealth of the tour?
First of all, in 2023, there was a wave of retaliation tourism, and there were irrational factors in the market.If compared with 2019 performance, as of the first three quarters of this year:
A -share tourist attractions listed on the marketCompany (natural+artificial), the overall revenue increased by 7.83%compared with 2019.
The business of the core scenic area has basically restored, which means that the overall domestic tourism market is growing than before the epidemic— The industry did not collapse, but just compared the irrational prosperity last year, just shrinking.
(Data source: official website financial report, iFIND)
The data is: In the second quarter of this year, the number of domestic tourism organizations in travel agencies exceeded the same period in 2019.The Ministry of Cultural Tourism "Statistical Survey Report in the second quarter of 2024" shows:
In the second quarter of 2024, the national tourism organization of the National Travel Agency 4810.72 was 10,000, and in the same period of 2019, it was 46.4572 million.In contrast, the number of organizations in travel agencies has increased slightly.
Since the market is still upward, where is the business?The answer is average.
As of the first half of this year, the total number of travel agencies across the country was 60,833, an increase of nearly 30,000 compared with the 33,794 in the same period in 2019, almost doubled.
Conversion, the average number of receptions of each travel agency is almost halved, which is also the dilemma of the current travel agency business.
In this regard, some people in the industry tease, "This extra 30,000, many of them are online travel agencies, now there is a casual one on XHSDriver, black guide, you can accept customers, do not have a warranty or operate permit, you can not sign the contract.The group is full of accompany and team leader.
02
The dilemma is common in all tourism industries.
Especially in recent years, the wave of "sports" tourism entrepreneurship has risen. The speed of merchants expand far exceeding the speed of tourist growth, resulting in a significant excess of the industry supply.
Taking the homestay as an example, the companys investigation data shows that As of the end of October this year, the domestic homestay -related existing enterprises reached 309,000, compared with 75,900 in 2019,Grow 3 times.
(Data source: Enterprise Check, only the name of the enterprise, the business scope, and the product name include the keyword "homestay"Enterprise)
The owner of Dali B & B and said, now there are more than more than tourists. From the past, it is difficult to find, to a large number of empty houses in National Day this year.In a paragraph, the homestay "closed down and transfer tide" also came.
Similar to blind expansion, it also occurred in the "ancient town of the county".
As early as 2012, Lin Peng, the dean of the Chinese Institute of Culture and Culture at that time, mentioned a data: "At present, there are more than 2,800 ancient cities that have been developed or under development in my country. Town, the number one in the world. "
At this stage, the number of ancient towns in my country may be far from 2,800. Maybe many people have no concept of this number. As of the end of 2021, the number of counties across the country is less than reached. 1500, in other words, there are nearly 2 ancient towns standard in each county.
Of course, the number of ancient towns is not terrible. It is terrible that a large number of homogeneous and transitional commercial towns have made tourists lose their interest in playing.
In the words of netizens, except for the different place names in the ancient town across the country, everything is the same as the other, just like it is carved in a mold, either copied Lijiang, or copying it or copyingWuzhen.
A batch of blind follow -up "pseudo -ancient town" due to the lack of reasonable planning and regional characteristics, caught in a serious loss situation, and even endangered to the end of the "empty city, ghost ghosts, ghosts, ghosts, ghosts, ghosts."Town" became the last straw that crushed the economy of the scenic area.
The recent typical case is Zhangjiajie Tourism Group. Although it is back to Zhangjiajies top scenic area resources, it has lost more than 60 million in the first half of the year.Drag.
Since the trial operation in 2021, the ancient city of Dayong has even lost money.
The financial report shows that the cumulative investment in the ancient city of Dasong exceeds 2.2 billion yuan.In the past three years and first half of 2024, its cumulative losses have exceeded 500 million yuan.
In the first half of this year, the wholeThe number of tickets for ancient cities is only 2,300, with an average of less than 13 tourists per day. It is said that it is an empty city, which is no exaggeration.
(Data Source: Zhangjiajie 2024Q2 Financial Report)
03
Due to the excess supply of tourism and macroeconomic environmental impact, the overall tourism consumption has also shown a downgrade.
A intuitive manifestation is that the price of air tickets and hotels this year is generally dived.
Air tickets: Data shows that the price of domestic and outbound tickets during the eleven holidays decreased by more than 20%year -on -year, and whileAfter the National Day tourist season, the price of domestic air tickets has generally declined significantly, and the price of air tickets in many places is even much lower than that of motorcycles.
Hotels: From the domestic data report that has announced the third quarter financial report, the Revpar of the three companies of the first brigade, Jinjiang, and Junting declined by 7.8%, 8.38%, and 15.06%, respectively.Fall 5.5%, 10.49%, 8.7%.
In fact, from the macro level data, domestic tourism consumption consumptionSince the Spring Festival this year, it has shown a cliff -like decline and continued to October.
The National Bureau of Statistics shows that the CPI of this years tourism cpi hit a peak in February, an increase of 23.1%year -on -year;By the first time in September this year, it turned to be 2.1%year -on -year, the first time below the comprehensive CPI increase.
Recently released data display shows, Including National Day in October, CPIs fell 0.4%year -on -year.
Tourism CPI trend vs integrated CPI trend
In contrast to domestic tourism consumption, in the case of outbound tourism before the level before the epidemic, Chinese consumers overseas consumption has exceeded the level of 2019 in 2019, McKinseys "China Market Briefing: The Truth of the Chinese Consumption Market" data shows:
China Consumption in May China ConsumptionThe overseas luxury consumption of overseas luxury goods is 32%higher than the same period in 2019, and the growth of 22%in June.
As a result, the consumption of Chinese consumers in Italy and France has also risen in addition to the significant increase in Japanese consumption.
Did you find it?In the context of overall consumption downgraded, this small group of consumption groups with the strongest consumption power have not declined, and they have shifted to overseas.
Some operators believe that domestic tourism consumption is weak, and high -end consumption transfers overseas. This phenomenon is the bitter fruit under the competition and vicious competition of tourism.
But optimistically, the increase in domestic tourists is also an objective fact, representing the general trend of the growth of the spiritual consumption demand for Chinese people.
Even at the current node of the relegation of tourism consumption, we can see that in the past year, many novel tourism experiences and tourism products have emerged.
From the popularity of the State Hotel, the community tour, the popularity of "accompanied" Taishan, and the popularity of "Following the Leader of the League" and so on.
As an industry said, "There is never a chance to travel in the tourism industry. So many people run in China, and it is impossible to cover my wallet without spending money?, Better to think more, what kind of product do tourists need. "
